English

Conformal Prediction for Signal Temporal Logic Inference

Machine Learning 2025-10-23 v3

Abstract

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide statistical correctness guarantees, but is typically applied as a post-training wrapper without improving model learning. Instead, we introduce an end-to-end differentiable CP framework for STL inference that enhances both reliability and interpretability of the resulting formulas. We introduce a robustness-based nonconformity score, embed a smooth CP layer directly into training, and employ a new loss function that simultaneously optimizes inference accuracy and CP prediction sets with a single term. Following training, an exact CP procedure delivers statistical guarantees for the learned STL formulas. Experiments on benchmark time-series tasks show that our approach reduces uncertainty in predictions (i.e., it achieves high coverage while reducing prediction set size), and improves accuracy (i.e., the number of misclassifications when using a fixed threshold) over state-of-the-art baselines.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.25473,
  title  = {Conformal Prediction for Signal Temporal Logic Inference},
  author = {Danyang Li and Yixuan Wang and Matthew Cleaveland and Mingyu Cai and Roberto Tron},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.25473},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T06:06:11.604Z