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Most current assessments use ex post proxies that miss uncertainty and fail to consistently capture the rapid change in bitcoin mining. We introduce a unified, ex ante statistical model that derives expected return, downside risk, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Yuting Cai , Ruthav Sadali , Korok Ray , Chao Tian

In the cryptographic currency Bitcoin, all transactions are recorded in the blockchain - a public, global, and immutable ledger. Because transactions are public, Bitcoin and its users employ obfuscation to maintain a degree of financial…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2017-06-30 Arvind Narayanan , Malte Möser

Bitcoin derives a verifiable temporal order from probabilistic block discovery and cumulative proof-of-work rather than from a trusted global clock. We show that block arrivals exhibit stable exponential behavior across difficulty epochs,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Bin Chen , Pan Feng

It has been known for some time that the Nakamoto consensus as implemented in the Bitcoin protocol is not totally aligned with the individual interests of the participants. More precisely, it has been shown that block withholding mining…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Cyril Grunspan , Ricardo Perez-Marco

Bitcoin's design promises resilience through decentralization, yet the physical infrastructure supporting the network creates hidden dependencies. We present the first longitudinal study of Bitcoin's resilience to submarine cable failures,…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Wenbin Wu , Alexander Neumueller

Bitcoin is a digital financial asset that is devoid of a central authority. This makes it distinct from traditional financial assets in a number of ways. For instance, the total number of tokens is limited and it has not explicit use value.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-20 C. R. da Cunha , R. da Silva

Bitcoin is a popular cryptocurrency that records alltransactions in a distributed append-only public ledger calledblockchain. The security of Bitcoin heavily relies on the incentive-compatible proof-of-work (PoW) based distributed consensus…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-06-05 Mauro Conti , Sandeep Kumar E , Chhagan Lal , Sushmita Ruj

Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2008, cryptocurrencies have played an increasing role in the world of e-commerce, but the recent turbulence in the cryptocurrency market in 2018 has raised some concerns about their stability and associated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Yan Gong , Raphaël Huser

We prove Bitcoin is secure under temporary dishonest majority. We assume the adversary can corrupt a specific fraction of parties and also introduce crash failures, i.e., some honest participants are offline during the execution of the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-08-02 Georgia Avarikioti , Lukas Kaeppeli , Yuyi Wang , Roger Wattenhofer

We review the so called selfish mining strategy in the Bitcoin network and compare its profitability to honest mining.We build a rigorous profitability model for repetition games. The time analysis of the attack has been ignored in the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-01-23 Cyril Grunspan , Ricardo Pérez-Marco

Bitcoin operates as a macroeconomic paradox: it combines a strictly predetermined, inelastic monetary issuance schedule with a stochastic, highly elastic demand for scarce block space. This paper empirically validates the Endogenous…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-10 Hamoon Soleimani

Selfish miners selectively withhold blocks to earn disproportionately high revenue. The vast majority of the selfish mining literature focuses exclusively on block rewards. Carlsten et al. [2016] is a notable exception, observing that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Maryam Bahrani , Michael Neuder , S. Matthew Weinberg

Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system proposed by Nakamoto in 2008. Properties of the bitcoin backbone protocol have been investigated in some depth: the blockchain growth property quantifies the number of blocks added to the blockchain…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Jing Li , Dongning Guo

We revisit the fundamental question of Bitcoin's security against double spending attacks. While previous work has bounded the probability that a transaction is reversed, we show that no such guarantee can be effectively given if the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Yonatan Sompolinsky , Aviv Zohar

A reputation of high volatility accompanies the emergence of Bitcoin as a financial asset. This paper intends to nuance this reputation and clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's volatility. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Nassim Dehouche

This paper studies a fundamental problem regarding the security of blockchain PoW consensus on how the existence of multiple misbehaving miners influences the profitability of selfish mining. Each selfish miner (or attacker interchangeably)…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Qianlan Bai , Yuedong Xu , Nianyi Liu , Xin Wang

Most state machine replication protocols are either based on the 40-years-old Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) theory or the more recent Nakamoto's longest chain design. Longest chain protocols, designed originally in the Proof-of-Work (PoW)…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-11-24 Songze Li , David Tse

We present Bitcoin Security Tables computing the probability of success p(z,q,t) of a double spend attack by an attacker controlling a share q of the hashrate after z confirmations in time t.

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-02-20 Cyril Grunspan , Ricardo Pérez-Marco

Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \sim t^{\beta}$ with $\hat\beta \approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-21 Carlos Baquero , Raquel Menezes

Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system proposed by Nakamoto in 2008. Based on the Nakamoto consensus, Bagaria, Kannan, Tse, Fanti, and Viswanath proposed the Prism protocol in 2018 and showed that it achieves near-optimal blockchain…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-04-27 Jing Li , Dongning Guo