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We study conformal prediction in the one-shot federated learning setting. The main goal is to compute marginally and training-conditionally valid prediction sets, at the server-level, in only one round of communication between the agents…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Pierre Humbert , Batiste Le Bars , Aurélien Bellet , Sylvain Arlot

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-15 Matias Altamirano , François-Xavier Briol , Jeremias Knoblauch

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

We address the problem of Bayesian reinforcement learning using efficient model-based online planning. We propose an optimism-free Bayes-adaptive algorithm to induce deeper and sparser exploration with a theoretical bound on its performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Divya Grover , Debabrota Basu , Christos Dimitrakakis

The topic of robustness is experiencing a resurgence of interest in the statistical and machine learning communities. In particular, robust algorithms making use of the so-called median of means estimator were shown to satisfy strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-14 Stanislav Minsker , Shunan Yao

Current AI/ML methods for data-driven engineering use models that are mostly trained offline. Such models can be expensive to build in terms of communication and computing cost, and they rely on data that is collected over extended periods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Xiaoxuan Wang , Rolf Stadler

Existing high-dimensional online learning methods often face the challenge that their error bounds, or per-batch sample sizes, diverge as the number of data batches increases. To address this issue, we propose an asynchronous decomposition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Shixiang Liu , Zhifan Li , Hanming Yang , Jianxin Yin

We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Rina Foygel Barber , Stephen Bates

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

This is a review of asymptotic and non-asymptotic behaviour of Bayesian methods under model specification. In particular we focus on consistency, i.e. convergence of the posterior distribution to the point mass at the best parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Natalia Bochkina

In this paper, we are proposing a unified and principled method for both the querying and training processes in deep batch active learning. We are providing theoretical insights from the intuition of modeling the interactive procedure in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-27 Changjian Shui , Fan Zhou , Christian Gagné , Boyu Wang

Inherent in virtually every iterative machine learning algorithm is the problem of hyper-parameter tuning, which includes three major design parameters: (a) the complexity of the model, e.g., the number of neurons in a neural network, (b)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Christos Mavridis , John Baras

Batch training of machine learning models based on neural networks is now well established, whereas to date streaming methods are largely based on linear models. To go beyond linear in the online setting, nonparametric methods are of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-22 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Ketan Rajawat , Brian M. Sadler

We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-01 Kyoungjae Lee , Minwoo Chae , Lizhen Lin

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-13 Elizabeth D. Schifano , Jing Wu , Chun Wang , Jun Yan , Ming-Hui Chen

We consider the problem of online multiclass classification with partial feedback, where an algorithm predicts a class for a new instance in each round and only receives its correctness. Although several methods have been developed for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Takuo Kaneko , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

The classical parametric and semiparametric Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) results are reconsidered in a non-classical setup allowing finite samples and model misspecification. In the case of a finite dimensional nuisance parameter we obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-24 Maxim Panov , Vladimir Spokoiny

Machine-learned predictors, although achieving very good results for inputs resembling training data, cannot possibly provide perfect predictions in all situations. Still, decision-making systems that are based on such predictors need not…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Antonios Antoniadis , Christian Coester , Marek Elias , Adam Polak , Bertrand Simon

A Bayesian net (BN) is more than a succinct way to encode a probabilistic distribution; it also corresponds to a function used to answer queries. A BN can therefore be evaluated by the accuracy of the answers it returns. Many algorithms for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Russell Greiner , Adam J. Grove , Dale Schuurmans