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We study the identification of heterogeneous, intertemporal treatment effects (TE) when potential outcomes depend on past treatments. First, applying a dynamic panel data model to observed outcomes, we show that an instrumental variable…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-09 Philip Marx , Elie Tamer , Xun Tang

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

The empirical literature on program evaluation limits its scope almost exclusively to models where treatment effects are homogenous for observationally identical individuals. This paper considers a treatment effect model in which treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-20 Jason Abrevaya , Haiqing Xu

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

The past 20 years have brought fundamental advances in modeling unobserved heterogeneity in panel data. Interactive Fixed Effects (IFE) proved to be a foundational framework, generalizing the standard one-way and two-way fixed effects…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-15 Jan Ditzen , Yiannis Karavias

Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

Policy evaluation in empirical microeconomics has been focusing on estimating the average treatment effect and more recently the heterogeneous treatment effects, often relying on the unconfoundedness assumption. We propose a method based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-06 Wei Tian

We study two-way-fixed-effects regressions (TWFE) with several treatment variables. Under a parallel trends assumption, we show that the coefficient on each treatment identifies a weighted sum of that treatment's effect, with possibly…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the…

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation is an extensively researched problem, with applications in various domains. We model the case where there exists heterogeneous non-compliance to a randomly assigned treatment, a typical situation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Thibaud Rahier , Amélie Héliou , Matthieu Martin , Christophe Renaudin , Eustache Diemert

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

To estimate the dynamic effects of an absorbing treatment, researchers often use two-way fixed effects regressions that include leads and lags of the treatment. We show that in settings with variation in treatment timing across units, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-24 Liyang Sun , Sarah Abraham

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

This paper considers identifying and estimating causal effect parameters in a staggered treatment adoption setting -- that is, where a researcher has access to panel data and treatment timing varies across units. We consider the case where…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Brantly Callaway , Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo

This paper considers identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) when untreated potential outcomes are generated by an interactive fixed effects model. That is, in addition to time-period and individual…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-15 Brantly Callaway , Sonia Karami

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Machine learning methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) facilitate large-scale personalized decision-making across various domains such as healthcare, policy making, education, and more. Current machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Disha Makhija , Joydeep Ghosh , Yejin Kim

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu
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