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Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

Unsupervised domain mapping has attracted substantial attention in recent years due to the success of models based on the cycle-consistency assumption. These models map between two domains by fooling a probabilistic discriminator, thereby…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-25 Matthew Amodio , Smita Krishnaswamy

Generative models for financial time series often create data that look realistic and even reproduce stylized facts such as fat tails or volatility clustering. However, these apparent successes break down under trading backtests: models…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Fan Zhang , Jiabin Luo , Zheng Zhang , Shuanghong Huang , Zhipeng Liu , Yu Chen

Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jiangxuan Long , Zhao Song , Chiwun Yang

Since neural networks play an increasingly important role in critical sectors, explaining network predictions has become a key research topic. Counterfactual explanations can help to understand why classifier models decide for particular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Jana Lang , Martin Giese , Winfried Ilg , Sebastian Otte

Besides reproducing tabular data properties of standalone tables, synthetic relational databases also require modeling the relationships between related tables. In this paper, we propose the Row Conditional-Tabular Generative Adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Mohamed Gueye , Yazid Attabi , Maxime Dumas

Data augmentation is an important facilitator of deep learning applications in the time series domain. A gap is identified in the literature, demonstrating sparse exploration of the transformer, the dominant sequence model, for data…

Exogenous variables offer valuable supplementary information for predicting future endogenous variables. Forecasting with exogenous variables needs to consider both past-to-future dependencies (i.e., temporal correlations) and the influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Zhengyu Li , Xiangfei Qiu , Yuhan Zhu , Xingjian Wu , Jilin Hu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Alexander Terenin , Eric P. Xing

Generating synthetic financial time series data that accurately reflects real-world market dynamics holds tremendous potential for various applications, including portfolio optimization, risk management, and large scale machine learning. We…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-05 Chung I Lu , Julian Sester

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

The loss function of Generative adversarial network(GAN) is an important factor that affects the quality and diversity of the generated samples for anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised multiple time series anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Shan Lu , Zhicheng Dong , Donghong Cai , Fang Fang , Dongcai Zhao

Synthetic data can be used in various applications, such as correcting bias datasets or replacing scarce original data for simulation purposes. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are considered state-of-the-art for developing generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Gael Lederrey , Tim Hillel , Michel Bierlaire

The generative adversarial networks (GANs) have recently been applied to estimating the distribution of independent and identically distributed data, and have attracted a lot of research attention. In this paper, we use the blocking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Jianya Lu , Yingjun Mo , Zhijie Xiao , Lihu Xu , Qiuran Yao

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-06 Christophe Andrieu , Sinan Yıldırım , Arnaud Doucet , Nicolas Chopin

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

Generative moment matching network (GMMN) is a deep generative model that differs from Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) by replacing the discriminator in GAN with a two-sample test based on kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Chun-Liang Li , Wei-Cheng Chang , Yu Cheng , Yiming Yang , Barnabás Póczos

We provide the first complete continuous time framework for denoising diffusion models of discrete data. This is achieved by formulating the forward noising process and corresponding reverse time generative process as Continuous Time Markov…

Actuarial ratemaking depends on high-quality data, yet access to such data is often limited by the cost of obtaining new data, privacy concerns, etc. In this paper, we explore synthetic-data generation as a potential solution to these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yevhen Havrylenko , Meelis Käärik , Artur Tuttar

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-05 Synge Todo