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A wide variety of battery models are available, and it is not always obvious which model `best' describes a dataset. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection approach using Bayesian quadrature. The model evidence is adopted as the…

Overfitting in linear regression is broken down into two main causes. First, the formula for the estimator includes 'forbidden knowledge' about training observations' residuals, and it loses this advantage when deployed out-of-sample.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-27 Chris Rohlfs

One of the challenges in training generative models such as the variational auto encoder (VAE) is avoiding posterior collapse. When the generator has too much capacity, it is prone to ignoring latent code. This problem is exacerbated when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Talip Ucar

Prompted by misconceptions in the recent literature, we review the justifications for naturalness arguments and Occam's razor found in Bayesian statistics. We discuss the automatic Occam's razor that emerges in Bayesian formalism, bringing…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Andrew Fowlie

Deep learning neural network models must be large enough to adapt to their problem domain, while small enough to avoid overfitting training data during gradient descent. To balance these competing demands, over-provisioned deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-04 B. N. Kausik

Traditional statistics forbids use of test data (a.k.a. holdout data) during training. Dwork et al. 2015 pointed out that current practices in machine learning, whereby researchers build upon each other's models, copying hyperparameters and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Sanjeev Arora , Yi Zhang

Excessive reuse of holdout data can lead to overfitting. However, there is little concrete evidence of significant overfitting due to holdout reuse in popular multiclass benchmarks today. Known results show that, in the worst-case,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-27 Vitaly Feldman , Roy Frostig , Moritz Hardt

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Similarity learning is a general problem to elicit useful representations by predicting the relationship between a pair of patterns. This problem is related to various important preprocessing tasks such as metric learning, kernel learning,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Han Bao , Takuya Shimada , Liyuan Xu , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans , Dharmesh Tailor , Erik J. Bekkers

In a regression context, when the relevant subset of explanatory variables is uncertain, it is common to use a data-driven model selection procedure. Classical linear model theory, applied naively to the selected sub-model, may not be valid…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-08 Liang Hong , Todd A. Kuffner , Ryan Martin

The aim of reduced rank regression is to connect multiple response variables to multiple predictors. This model is very popular, especially in biostatistics where multiple measurements on individuals can be re-used to predict multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 The Tien Mai , Pierre Alquier

Implicit bias describes the phenomenon where optimization-based training algorithms, without explicit regularization, show a preference for simple estimators even when more complex estimators have equal objective values. Multiple works have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Hrithik Ravi , Clayton Scott , Daniel Soudry , Yutong Wang

Double descent is a phenomenon of over-parameterized statistical models such as deep neural networks which have a re-descending property in their risk function. As the complexity of the model increases, risk exhibits a U-shaped region due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Binary Neural Networks (BiNNs), which employ single-bit precision weights, have emerged as a promising solution to reduce memory usage and power consumption while maintaining competitive performance in large-scale systems. However, training…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-11-18 Luca Nepote , Alix Lhéritier , Nicolas Bondoux , Marios Kountouris , Maurizio Filippone

In a circular convolution model, we aim to infer on the density of a circular random variable using observations contaminated by an additive measurement error. We highlight the interplay of the two problems: optimal testing and quadratic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Sandra Schluttenhofer , Jan Johannes

Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome varies according to the level of other covariates and often has important implications in decision making. When there are tens or hundreds of covariates, it becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Qingyuan Zhao , Dylan S. Small , Ashkan Ertefaie

Marginal likelihood, also known as model evidence, is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian statistics. It is used for model selection using Bayes factors or for empirical Bayes tuning of prior hyper-parameters. Yet, the calculation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Anindya Bhadra , Ksheera Sagar , David Rowe , Sayantan Banerjee , Jyotishka Datta

The literature on "benign overfitting" in overparameterized models has been mostly restricted to regression or binary classification; however, modern machine learning operates in the multiclass setting. Motivated by this discrepancy, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-13 Ke Wang , Vidya Muthukumar , Christos Thrampoulidis

Feature subsampling is a core component of random forests and other ensemble methods. While recent theory suggests that this randomization acts solely as a variance reduction mechanism analogous to ridge regularization, these results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-06 Xin Chen , Jason M. Klusowski , Yan Shuo Tan , Chang Yu