Related papers: Consistent Variable Selection for GARCH-X Models

Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of selected portfolios among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al (2008). The required high-dimensional…

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

While data-driven confounder selection requires careful consideration, it is frequently employed in observational studies. Widely recognized criteria for confounder selection include the minimal-set approach, which involves selecting…

This paper is concerned with the selection and estimation of fixed and random effects in linear mixed effects models. We propose a class of nonconcave penalized profile likelihood methods for selecting and estimating important fixed…

In this work, we explore the forecasting ability of a recently proposed normalizing and variance-stabilizing (NoVaS) transformation with the possible inclusion of exogenous variables. From an applied point-of-view, extra knowledge such as…

This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Recently, applied sciences, including longitudinal and clustered studies in biomedicine require the analysis of ultra-high dimensional linear mixed effects models where we need to select important fixed effect variables from a vast pool of…

Penalized regression models are popularly used in high-dimensional data analysis to conduct variable selection and model fitting simultaneously. Whereas success has been widely reported in literature, their performances largely depend on…

Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

We show that the Realized GARCH model yields close-form expression for both the Volatility Index (VIX) and the volatility risk premium (VRP). The Realized GARCH model is driven by two shocks, a return shock and a volatility shock, and these…

This paper develops a large-scale inference approach for the regularization of stock return covariance matrices. The framework allows for the presence of heavy tails and multivariate GARCH-type effects of unknown form among the stock…

Volatility is a key variable in option pricing, trading and hedging strategies. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of forecasting implied volatility using an extension of genetic programming (GP) by means of dynamic…

False discovery rate (FDR) has been widely used as an error measure in large scale multiple testing problems, but most research in the area has been focused on procedures for controlling the FDR based on independent test statistics or the…

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…

A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional…

Much effort has been done to control the "false discovery rate" (FDR) when $m$ hypotheses are tested simultaneously. The FDR is the expectation of the "false discovery proportion" $\text{FDP}=V/R$ given by the ratio of the number of false…

We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…