Related papers: Consistent Variable Selection for GARCH-X Models
We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…
In many fields of science, we observe a response variable together with a large number of potential explanatory variables, and would like to be able to discover which variables are truly associated with the response. At the same time, we…
We investigate the frequentist guarantees of the variational sparse Gaussian process regression model. In the theoretical analysis, we focus on the variational approach with spectral features as inducing variables. We derive guarantees and…
In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…
Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with…
Varying coefficient model is often used in statistical modeling since it is more flexible than the parametric model. However, model detection and variable selection of varying coefficient model are poorly understood in mode regression.…
The Model-X knockoff procedure has recently emerged as a powerful approach for feature selection with statistical guarantees. The advantage of knockoff is that if we have a good model of the features X, then we can identify salient features…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
This paper proposes a robust method for fault detection and severity estimation in multivariate time-series data to enhance predictive maintenance of mechanical systems. We use the Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) model to…
False discovery rate (FDR) control is a popular approach for maintaining the integrity of statistical analyses, especially in high-dimensional data settings, where multiple comparisons increase the risk of false positives. FDR control has…
Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…
In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…
Controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in variable selection becomes challenging when predictors are correlated, as existing methods often exclude all members of correlated groups and consequently perform poorly for prediction. We…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…
We study the class of semi-Levy driven continuous-time GARCH, denoted by SLD-COGARCH, process. The statistical properties of this process are characterized. We show that the state process of such process can be described by a random…