Related papers: General-Purpose Technology and Speculative Bubble …
Inflation predicts B-mode polarization with correlations that span superhorizon scales at recombination. In contrast, the correlations set up by causal sources, such as phase transitions or defects, necessarily vanish on superhorizon…
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology…
Dataset bias, i.e., the over-reliance on dataset-specific literal heuristics, is getting increasing attention for its detrimental effect on the generalization ability of NLU models. Existing works focus on eliminating dataset bias by…
There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem arises because standard `point-form null' significance…
In this study, we perform a novel analysis of the 2015 financial bubble in the Chinese stock market by calibrating the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to two important Chinese stock indices, SSEC and SZSC, from early 2014…
We introduce the Consensus-Bottleneck Asset Pricing Model (CB-APM), which embeds aggregate analyst consensus as a structural bottleneck, treating professional beliefs as a sufficient statistic for the market's high-dimensional information…
We present a heuristic argument for the propensity of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to detect early warning signals of critical transitions in financial time series. Our argument is based on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS)…
The recent BICEP2 detection of degree scale CMB B-mode polarization, coupled with a deficit of observed power in large angle temperature anisotropy, suggest that the slow-roll parameter $\epsilon_H$, the fractional variation in the Hubble…
The $1s^2->1s2p(^1P)$ excitation in confined and compressed helium atoms in either the bulk material or encapsulated in a bubble is shifted to energies higher than that in the free atom. For bulk helium, the energy shifts predicted from…
We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with decelerating…
The recent transition from decelerated to accelerated expansion can be seen as a reflection (or "bounce") in the connection variable, defined by the inverse comoving Hubble length ($b=\dot a$, on-shell). We study the quantum cosmology of…
In this article, we discuss the ubiquity of Big Data and machine learning in society and propose that it evinces the need of further investigation of their fundamental limitations. We extend the ``too much information tends to behave like…
Speculative bubbles exhibit common statistical signatures across many financial markets, suggesting the presence of universal underlying mechanisms. We test this hypothesis in the Iranian stock market, an economy that is highly isolated,…
In this work we study the imprints of bubble nucleation on primordial inflationary perturbations. We assume that the bubble is formed via the tunneling of a spectator field from the false vacuum of its potential to its true vacuum. We…
The Nasdaq Composite fell another $\approx 10 %$ on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total…
This paper introduces a new approach for bubble detection based on mixed causal and noncausal autoregressive processes and their tail process representation during an explosive episode. Departing from traditional definitions of bubbles as…
The shuffle model of DP (Differential Privacy) provides high utility by introducing a shuffler that randomly shuffles noisy data sent from users. However, recent studies show that existing shuffle protocols suffer from the following two…
Large language models (LLMs) produce fluent but unsupported answers - hallucinations - limiting safe deployment in high-stakes domains. We propose ECLIPSE, a framework that treats hallucination as a mismatch between a model's semantic…
While recent models have achieved human-level scores on many NLP datasets, we observe that they are considerably sensitive to small changes in input. As an alternative to the standard approach of addressing this issue by constructing…
The problem of estimating a parameter of a quantum system through a series of measurements performed sequentially on a quantum probe is analyzed in the general setting where the underlying statistics is explicitly non-i.i.d. We present a…