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Related papers: Misspecification-Averse Estimation

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Maximum likelihood estimation problems are, in general, intractable optimization problems. As a result, it is common to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using convex relaxations. In some cases, the relaxation is tight: it…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-15 Afonso S. Bandeira , Nicolas Boumal , Amit Singer

We consider covariance parameter estimation for a Gaussian process under inequality constraints (boundedness, monotonicity or convexity) in fixed-domain asymptotics. We address the estimation of the variance parameter and the estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-04 François Bachoc , Agnès Lagnoux , Andrés F. López-Lopera

We analyze the clustering problem through a flexible probabilistic model that aims to identify an optimal partition on the sample X 1 , ..., X n. We perform exact clustering with high probability using a convex semidefinite estimator that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Martin Royer

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 John R. Lewis , Steven N. MacEachern , Yoonkyung Lee

Asymptotic properties of three estimators of probability density function of sample maximum $f_{(m)}:=mfF^{m-1}$ are derived, where $m$ is a function of sample size $n$. One of the estimators is the parametrically fitted by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Taku Moriyama

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is pivotal in statistical inference, yet its application is often hindered by the absence of closed-form solutions for many models. This poses challenges in real-time computation scenarios,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Pedro L. Ramos , Eduardo Ramos , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Francisco Louzada

Filtering and parameter estimation under partial information for multiscale problems is studied in this paper. After proving mean square convergence of the nonlinear filter to a filter of reduced dimension, we establish that the conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-09 Andrew Papanicolaou , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

In this note we consider the finite-dimensional parameter estimation problem associated to inverse problems. In such scenarios, one seeks to maximize the marginal likelihood associated to a Bayesian model. This latter model is connected to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-10 Ajay Jasra , Abylay Zhumekenov

We consider a linear mixed-effects model with a clustered structure, where the parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on possibly unbalanced data. Inference with this model is typically done based on asymptotic theory,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-30 Chih-Hao Chang , Hsin-Cheng Huang , Ching-Kang Ing

We study the population limit maximum regret (MR) of plug-in prediction when the decision problem is to choose between two treatments for the members of a population with observed covariates x. In this setting, the optimal treatment for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Jeff Dominitz , Charles F. Manski

Inference problems with incomplete observations often aim at estimating population properties of unobserved quantities. One simple way to accomplish this estimation is to impute the unobserved quantities of interest at the individual level…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-16 Vladimir N. Minin , John D. O'Brien , Arseni Seregin

Existing nonconvex statistical optimization theory and methods crucially rely on the correct specification of the underlying "true" statistical models. To address this issue, we take a first step towards taming model misspecification by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-19 Zhuoran Yang , Lin F. Yang , Ethan X. Fang , Tuo Zhao , Zhaoran Wang , Matey Neykov

This paper studies a class of exponential family models whose canonical parameters are specified as linear functionals of an unknown infinite-dimensional slope function. The optimal minimax rates of convergence for slope function estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-25 Winston Wei Dou , David Pollard , Harrison H. Zhou

The recent work by Dong & Yang (2023) showed for misspecified sparse linear bandits, one can obtain an $O\left(\epsilon\right)$-optimal policy using a polynomial number of samples when the sparsity is a constant, where $\epsilon$ is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Ally Yalei Du , Lin F. Yang , Ruosong Wang

We consider inference in models defined by approximate moment conditions. We show that near-optimal confidence intervals (CIs) can be formed by taking a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, and adding and subtracting the standard…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-15 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active…

Deviations from Bayesian updating are traditionally categorized as biases, errors, or fallacies, thus implying their inherent ``sub-optimality.'' We offer a more nuanced view. We demonstrate that, in learning problems with misspecified…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-06 Sebastian Bervoets , Mathieu Faure , Ludovic Renou

Batch policy optimization considers leveraging existing data for policy construction before interacting with an environment. Although interest in this problem has grown significantly in recent years, its theoretical foundations remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Chenjun Xiao , Yifan Wu , Tor Lattimore , Bo Dai , Jincheng Mei , Lihong Li , Csaba Szepesvari , Dale Schuurmans

A common way of characterizing minimax estimators in point estimation is by moving the problem into the Bayesian estimation domain and finding a least favorable prior distribution. The Bayesian estimator induced by a least favorable prior,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-24 Alex Dytso , Mario Goldenbaum , H. Vincent Poor , Shlomo Shamai

We consider an adaptive finite element method with arbitrary but fixed polynomial degree $p \ge 1$, where adaptivity is driven by an edge-based residual error estimator. Based on the modified maximum criterion from [Diening et al, Found.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-29 Michael Innerberger , Dirk Praetorius