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Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-27 Daniel Rudolf , Nikolaus Schweizer

The paper concerns itself with establishing large deviation principles for a sequence of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations driven by general semimartingales in infinite-dimensional settings. The class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Arnab Ganguly

Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Minjun Kim , Seokhwan Moon , Jinsu Kim

Large deviation principles and related results are given for a class of Markov chains associated to the "leaves" in random recursive trees and preferential attachment random graphs, as well as the "cherries" in Yule trees. In particular,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-22 W. Bryc , D. Minda , S. Sethuraman

It is proved that the limit of the normalized rate-distortion functions of block independent approximations of an irreducible, aperiodic Markoff chain is independent of the initial distribution of the Markoff chain and thus, is also equal…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-03-28 Mukul Agarwal

We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-19 Stefano De Marco , Antoine Jacquier , Patrick Roome

In this paper, we consider a class of reflected stochastic differential equations for which the constraint is not on the paths of the solution but on its law. We establish a small noise large deviation principle, a large deviation for short…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-27 Ping Chen , Jianliang Zhai

This paper features a Cram\'er's theorem for finite-state Markov chains indexed by rooted $d$-trees, obtained via the method of types in the classical analysis of large deviations. Along with the theorem comes two applications: an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-05 Jung-Chao Ban , Guan-Yu Lai , Yu-Liang Wu

Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-17 Ardjen Pengel , Joris Bierkens

Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-17 Hugo Harari-Kermadec

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-28 Wei Zhang

We study the dynamics of smooth interval maps with non-flat critical points. For every such a map that is topologically exact, we establish the full (level-2) Large Deviation Principle for empirical means. In particular, the Large Deviation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-07-19 Yong Moo Chung , Juan Rivera-Letelier , Hiroki Takahasi

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-10 Natan T'Joens , Jasper De Bock

In this paper we study the almost sure conditional central limit theorem in its functional form for a class of random variables satisfying a projective criterion. Applications to strongly mixing processes and non irreducible Markov chains…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-07 Jérôme Dedecker , Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad

We consider a two-dimensional Hamiltonian system perturbed by a small diffusion term, whose coefficient is state-dependent and non-degenerate. As a result, the process consists of the fast motion along the level curves and slow motion…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Shuo Yan

In this paper we propose an efficient variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains relying on a novel discrete time martingale representation. Our approach is fully non-asymptotic and does not require the knowledge…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-22 D. Belomestny , E. Moulines , S. Samsonov

We describe a simple form of importance sampling designed to bound and compute large-deviation rate functions for time-extensive dynamical observables in continuous-time Markov chains. We start with a model, defined by a set of rates, and a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-12-04 Daniel Jacobson , Stephen Whitelam

We propose a "decomposition method" to prove non-asymptotic bound for the convergence of empirical measures in various dual norms. The main point is to show that if one measures convergence in duality with sufficiently regular observables,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-13 Benoît Kloeckner

We consider metrics which are preserved under a $p$-Wasserstein transport map, up to a possible contraction. In the case $p=1$ this corresponds to a metric which is uniformly curved in the sense of coarse Ricci curvature. We investigate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-08 Florian Völlering

The purpose of this paper is to ensure the conditions of G\"artner-Ellis Theorem for evaluations of the empirical measure. We show that up-to-date conditions for ensuring the convergence to a quasi-stationary distribution can be applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Aurélien Velleret
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