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The Chain-Ladder (CL) method remains the dominant macro-level technique for claims reserving in non-life insurance, yet its classical formulation lacks a coherent probabilistic foundation. Existing stochastic extensions-including the Mack…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Robin Van Oirbeek

Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-06 Scott W. Linderman , Ryan P. Adams

Competing and Complementary risk (CCR) problems are often modelled using a class of distributions of the maximum, or minimum, of a random number of i.i.d. random variables; we call this class the CCR class of distributions. While the CCR…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Anum Fatima , Gesine Reinert

We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-11 Themistoklis Botsas , Lachlan R. Mason , Indranil Pan

Poisson approximation using Stein's method has been extensively studied in the literature. The main focus has been on bounding the total variation distance. This paper is a first attempt on moderate deviations in Poisson approximation for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-21 Louis H. Y. Chen , Xiao Fang , Qi-Man Shao

Recently, there has been significant interest in linear regression in the situation where predictors and responses are not observed in matching pairs corresponding to the same statistical unit as a consequence of separate data collection…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-04 Martin Slawski , Guoqing Diao , Emanuel Ben-David

This paper tackles the problem of robust covariance matrix estimation when the data is incomplete. Classical statistical estimation methodologies are usually built upon the Gaussian assumption, whereas existing robust estimation ones assume…

High dimensional Poisson regression has become a standard framework for the analysis of massive counts datasets. In this work we estimate the intensity function of the Poisson regression model by using a dictionary approach, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-30 S. Ivanoff , F. Picard , V. Rivoirard

Modern applications require methods that are computationally feasible on large datasets but also preserve statistical efficiency. Frequently, these two concerns are seen as contradictory: approximation methods that enable computation are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-11 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Joshua L. Pulsipher , Victor M. Zavala

The statistical method is used to identify the hidden leaders of the corruption structure. The method is based on principal component analysis (PCA), linear regression, and Shannon information. It is applied to study the time series data of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Yury A. Pichugin , Oleg A. Malafeyev , Denis Rylow

Methods for addressing missing data have become much more accessible to applied researchers. However, little guidance exists to help researchers systematically identify plausible missing data mechanisms in order to ensure that these methods…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-29 Adam Davey , Ting Dai

A composite likelihood is an inference function derived by multiplying a set of likelihood components. This approach provides a flexible framework for drawing inference when the likelihood function of a statistical model is computationally…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Giuseppe Alfonzetti , Ruggero Bellio , Yunxiao Chen , Irini Moustaki

We propose a novel continuous testing framework to test the intensities of Poisson Processes. This framework allows a rigorous definition of the complete testing procedure, from an infinite number of hypothesis to joint error rates. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-25 Franck Picard , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Etienne Roquain

Distributed systems have been widely used in practice to accomplish data analysis tasks of huge scales. In this work, we target on the estimation problem of generalized linear models on a distributed system with nonrandomly distributed…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Feifei Wang , Danyang Huang , Yingqiu Zhu , Hansheng Wang

General purpose optimization routines such as nlminb, optim (R) or nlmixed (SAS) are frequently used to estimate model parameters in nonstandard distributions. This paper presents Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), as an alternative to many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-22 Sisi Shao , Junhyung Park , Weng Kee Wong

The framework of Stein's method for Poisson process approximation is presented from the point of view of Palm theory, which is used to construct Stein identities and define local dependence. A general result (Theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Louis H. Y. Chen , Aihua Xia

To avoid specification of the error distribution in a regression model, we propose a general nonparametric scale mixture model for the error distribution. For fitting such mixtures, the predictive recursion method is a simple and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-03 Ryan Martin , Zhen Han

Compared to the conditional mean as a simple point estimator, the conditional density function is more informative to describe the distributions with multi-modality, asymmetry or heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we propose a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Yiping Guo , Howard D. Bondell

We evaluate uncertainty calculations in the calstis pipeline for data in the low-count regime. Due to the low dark rate and read-noise free nature of MAMA detectors, observations of UV-dim sources can result in exposures with 0 or 1 counts…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-28 Joshua D. Lothringer , Leonardo dos Santos , Joleen Carlberg , Sean Lockwood , Jacqueline Brown
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