Related papers: Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and …
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Research efforts that require observations of high solar activity, such as multiwavelength studies of large solar flares and CMEs, must contend with the 11-year solar cycle to a degree unparalleled by other segments of heliophysics. While…
The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…
It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
The large-scale magnetic field observed at the solar surface is produced by the interior dynamo process. Whether this surface field also provides the dominant seed for the subsequent dynamo cycle, however, remains controversial, with…
The multi-scale structure of the solar surface magnetic field is essential for understanding both the Sun's internal dynamo processes and its external magnetic activity. The surface flux transport (SFT) model has been successful in…
Magnetic activity cycles are an important phenomenon in both the Sun and other stars. The shape of the solar cycle is commonly characterised by a fast rise and a slower decline, but not much attention has been paid to the shape of cycles in…
The magnetic fields and dynamical processes in the solar polar regions play a crucial role in the solar magnetic cycle and in supplying mass and energy to the fast solar wind, ultimately being vital in controlling solar activities and…
The rapid increase in the number of space debris represents a substantial threat to the sustained viability of space operations and underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of orbital decay. This first of its kind study…
Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…
Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to…
The mainstream dynamo models predict that the sunspot cycle is non-stationary and stochastic. The official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts only the ongoing sunspot cycle because any forecast beyond one cycle is considered impossible.…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…