Related papers: Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and …
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots…
Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Sunspots have been observed for over four centuries and the magnetic nature of sunspot cycles has been known for about a century; however, some of its underlying physics still remain elusive. It is known that the solar magnetic cycle…
The so-called solar cycle is generally characterized by the quasi-periodic oscillatory evolution of the photospheric spots number. This quasi-periodic pattern has always been an intriguing question. Several physical models were proposed to…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
The duration of activity growths in solar cycles is on average shorter than the duration of its declines. This asymmetry can result from fluctuations in dynamo parameters. A solar dynamo model with fluctuations in the $\alpha$-effect shows…
Detailed study of the solar magnetic field is crucial to understand its generation, transport and reversals. The timing of the reversals may have implications on space weather and thus identification of the temporal behavior of the critical…
Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
We describe the defining observations of the solar cycle that provide constraints for the dynamo processes operating within the Sun. Specifically, we report on the following topics: historical sunspot numbers and revisions; active region…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
We have measured the meridional motions of the magnetic elements in the Sun's surface layers since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variations. In general the meridional flow speed is fast at cycle minima and slow at cycle maxima.…
Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…
The solar dynamo is essentially a cyclic process in which the toroidal component of the magnetic field is converted into the poloidal one and vice versa. This cyclic loop is disturbed by some nonlinear and stochastic processes mainly…
The solar activity cycle is a manifestation of the hydromagnetic dynamo working inside our star. The detection of activity cycles in solar-like stars and the study of their properties allow us to put the solar dynamo in perspective,…
We compare spectra of the zonal harmonics of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun using observation results and solar dynamo models. The main solar activity cycle as recorded in these tracers is a much more complicated phenomenon than…
Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…