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We consider causal discovery in structural causal models driven by heavy-tailed noise, where extremes carry important information about causal direction. We introduce the Heavy-Tailed Homogeneous Structural Causal Model (HT-HSCM), a unified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Vishal Routh , Shuyang Bai

Causal discovery (CD) aims to discover the causal graph underlying the data generation mechanism of observed variables. In many real-world applications, the observed variables are vector-valued, such as in climate science where variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Standard diffusion models are flexible estimators of complex distributions, but they do not encode causal structures and therefore do not by themselves support causal analysis. We propose a causality-encoded diffusion framework that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Zehao Liu , Mengzhou Gao , Pengfei Jiao

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains a major challenge. Prevailing foundation models for TSAD predominantly rely on reconstruction-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Tian Lan , Hao Duong Le , Jinbo Li , Wenjun He , Meng Wang , Chenghao Liu , Chen Zhang

Latent world models allow agents to reason about complex environments with high-dimensional observations. However, adapting to new environments and effectively leveraging previous knowledge remain significant challenges. We present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Anson Lei , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ingmar Posner

Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gene Yu , Ce Guo , Wayne Luk

When a dynamical system can be modeled as a sequence of observations, Granger causality is a powerful approach for detecting predictive interactions between its variables. However, traditional Granger causal inference has limited utility in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Rohit Singh , Alexander P. Wu , Bonnie Berger

Estimating individual treatment effects (ITE) from observational data is a critical task across various domains. However, many existing works on ITE estimation overlook the influence of hidden confounders, which remain unobserved at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Binbin Hu , Zhicheng An , Zhengwei Wu , Ke Tu , Ziqi Liu , Zhiqiang Zhang , Jun Zhou , Yufei Feng , Jiawei Chen

Understanding causal relations between temporal variables is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly when the full causal structure is unknown. Even when the full causal structure cannot be fully specified, experts often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Timothée Loranchet , Charles K. Assaad

Endogeneity poses significant challenges in causal inference across various research domains. This paper proposes a novel approach to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of endogeneity. We consider a structural equation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ruoyu Wang , Wang Miao

Understanding the evolution of connectivity in spatiotemporal systems requires mathematical frameworks capable of encoding not only instantaneous interactions but also their cumulative causal structure. In this work, we introduce the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Marcilio Ferreira dos Santos , Cleiton de Lima Ricardo

Anomaly detection in high-dimensional time series data is pivotal for numerous industrial applications. Recent advances in multivariate time series anomaly detection (TSAD) have increasingly leveraged graph structures to model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Jiazhen Chen , Mingbin Feng , Tony S. Wirjanto

Temporal link prediction in dynamic graphs is a fundamental problem in many real-world systems. Existing temporal graph neural networks mainly focus on learning representations of historical interactions. Despite their strong performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Nguyen Minh Duc , Viet Cuong Ta

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

In the real world, anomalous entities often add more legitimate connections while hiding direct links with other anomalous entities, leading to heterophilic structures in anomalous networks that most GNN-based techniques fail to address.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Zengyi Wo , Wenjun Wang , Minglai Shao , Chang Liu , Yumeng Wang , Yueheng Sun

An acyclic causal structure can be described with directed acyclic graph (DAG), where arrows indicate the possibility of direct causation. The task of learning this structure from data is known as "causal discovery." Diverse populations or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Bijan Mazaheri , Spencer Gordon , Yuval Rabani , Leonard Schulman

Temporal Action Detection (TAD), the task of localizing and classifying actions in untrimmed video, remains challenging due to action overlaps and variable action durations. Recent findings suggest that TAD performance is dependent on the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-09 Aglind Reka , Diana Laura Borza , Dominick Reilly , Michal Balazia , Francois Bremond

As a fundamental task in long-form video understanding, temporal action detection (TAD) aims to capture inherent temporal relations in untrimmed videos and identify candidate actions with precise boundaries. Over the years, various…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-29 Shuming Liu , Lin Sui , Chen-Lin Zhang , Fangzhou Mu , Chen Zhao , Bernard Ghanem

Graph anomaly detection (GAD) is crucial in applications like fraud detection and cybersecurity. Despite recent advancements using graph neural networks (GNNs), two major challenges persist. At the model level, most methods adopt a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Chunyu Wei , Siyuan He , Yu Wang , Yueguo Chen , Yunhai Wang , Bing Bai , Yidong Zhang , Yong Xie , Shunming Zhang , Fei Wang