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Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

Maintaining the stability of renewable-dominant power systems requires the procurement of virtual inertia services from non-synchronous resources (e.g., batteries, wind turbines) in addition to inertia traditionally provided by synchronous…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-12 Zhirui Liang , Robert Mieth , Yury Dvorkin

This paper presents a dynamic pricing and energy management framework for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. To set the charging prices, the service providers faces three uncertainties: the volatility of wholesale electricity…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-01-10 Chao Luo , Yih-Fang Huang , Vijay Gupta

Power system outages expose market participants to significant financial risk unless promptly detected and hedged. We develop an outage identification method from public market signals grounded in the parametric quickest change detection…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-21 Milad Hoseinpour , Shubhanshu Shekhar , Vladimir Dvorkin

The rising share of volatile renewable generation increases the demand for flexibility in the electricity grid. Flexible capacity can be offered by industrial energy systems through participation on either the continuous intraday,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-26 Niklas Nolzen , Alissa Ganter , Nils Baumgärtner , Ludger Leenders , André Bardow

The concept of complex frequency has been recently introduced on the IEEE Transactions on Power Systems to study bus voltage variations in magnitude and frequency and their link with complex power injections of a power system. In this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-31 Ignacio Ponce , Federico Milano

In smart grid, a home appliance can adjust its power consumption level according to the realtime power price obtained from communication channels. Most studies on smart grid do not consider the cost of communications which cannot be ignored…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-03-11 Husheng Li , Robert C. Qiu

In this paper we address the problem of dynamic pricing for toll lanes on freeways. The proposed toll mechanism is broken up into two parts: (1) the supply side feedback control that computes the desired split ratios for the incoming…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-05-05 Elena G. Dorogush , Alex A. Kurzhanskiy

Power grid frequency control is a demanding task requiring expensive idle power plants to adapt the supply to the fluctuating demand. An alternative approach is controlling the demand side in such a way that certain appliances modify their…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-09 E. B. Tchawou Tchuisseu , D. Gomila , D. Brunner , P. Colet

In the following paper, we analyse the ID$_3$-Price in the German Intraday Continuous electricity market using an econometric time series model. A multivariate approach is conducted for hourly and quarter-hourly products separately. We…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-01 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Linian Wang , Jianghong Liu , Huibin Zhang , Leye Wang

The availability of historical data related to electricity day-ahead prices and to the underlying price formation process is limited. In addition, the electricity market in Europe is facing a rapid transformation, which limits the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raffaele Sgarlato

In order to efficiently provide demand side management (DSM) in smart grid, carrying out pricing on the basis of real-time energy usage is considered to be the most vital tool because it is directly linked with the finances associated with…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-01-26 Muneeb Ul Hassan , Mubashir Husain Rehmani , Jia Tina Du , Jinjun Chen

There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-01 Andrei Renatovich Batyrov

We study price formation in intraday electricity markets in the presence of intermittent renewable generation. We consider the setting where a major producer may interact strategically with a large number of small producers. Using…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-17 Olivier Féron , Peter Tankov , Laura Tinsi

Biondi et al. (2012) develop an analytical model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, capable to capture important stylized facts. These latter properties prove to be sensitive to regulatory…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-27 Yuri Biondi , Simone Righi

Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-24 Michael Stanley Smith , Thomas S. Shively

Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market mechanisms. We propose a novel and highly efficient…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-27 Paul Ghelasi , Florian Ziel

We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-22 Christopher Kath , Florian Ziel

Low levels of system inertia in power grids with significant penetration of non-synchronous Renewable Energy Sources (RES) have increased the risk of frequency instability. The provision of a certain type of ancillary services such as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-20 Luis Badesa , Fei Teng , Goran Strbac