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Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-13 Luisa Andreis , Maria Flora , Fulvio Fontini , Tiziano Vargiolu

Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Ciaran O'Connor , Mohamed Bahloul , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

In order to deal with market power that sporadically results from contingencies (e.g., severe weather, plant outages) most electricity markets have institutions in charge of monitoring market performance and mitigating market power. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Shi Pu , Alfredo Garcia

Market-based coordination of demand side assets has gained great interests in recent years. In spite of its efficiency, there is a risk that the interaction between the dynamic assets through the price signal could result in an unstable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-04-04 Lin Zhao , Wei Zhang

This paper studies the problem of frequency regulation in power grids, while maximizing the social welfare. Two price-based controllers are proposed; the first one an internal-model-based controller and the second one based on a continuous…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-25 Tjerk Stegink , Claudio De Persis , Arjan van der Schaft

We analyze the efficiency of markets with friction, particularly power markets. We model the market as a dynamic system with $(d_t;\,t\geq 0)$ the demand process and $(s_t;\,t\geq 0)$ the supply process. Using stochastic differential…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2011-09-19 Arman C. Kizilkale , Shie Mannor

Statistical mechanics provides a useful analog for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including electric power markets and the power systems they intend to govern. Market-based control is founded on the conjecture that…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 David P. Chassin

Traditional pricing paradigms, once dominated by static models and rule-based heuristics, are increasingly being replaced by dynamic, data-driven approaches powered by machine learning algorithms. Despite their growing sophistication, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Marco Mussi , Marcello Restelli

We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-15 Andrea Civilini , Vito Latora

In this paper, we propose a combined Online Feedback Optimization (OFO) and dynamic estimation approach for a real-time power grid operation under time-varying conditions. A dynamic estimation uses grid measurements to generate the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-17 Miguel Picallo , Dominic Liao-McPherson , Saverio Bolognani , Florian Dörfler

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-02 Florian Ziel , Rick Steinert , Sven Husmann

We consider dynamic pricing schemes in online settings where selfish agents generate online events. Previous work on online mechanisms has dealt almost entirely with the goal of maximizing social welfare or revenue in an auction settings.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-04-07 Ilan Reuven Cohen , Alon Eden , Amos Fiat , Łukasz Jeż

Nowadays, power system inertia is changing as a consequence of replacing conventional units by renewable energy sources, mainly wind and PV power plants. This fact affects significantly the grid frequency response under power imbalances. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-06 A. Fernández-Guillamón , A. Vigueras-Rodríguez , A. Molina-García

Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Arnaud Verstraeten , Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-04 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

We investigate the problem of market mechanism design for wind energy. We consider a dynamic two-step model with one strategic seller with wind generation and one buyer, who trade energy through a mechanism determined by a designer. The…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-02-02 Hamidreza Tavafoghi , Demosthenis Teneketzis

The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-03 Jieyu Chen , Sebastian Lerch , Melanie Schienle , Tomasz Serafin , Rafał Weron

Recent research finds that forecasting electricity prices is very relevant. In many applications, it might be interesting to predict daily electricity prices by using their own lags or renewable energy sources. However, the recent turmoil…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-21 Claudia Foroni , Francesco Ravazzolo , Luca Rossini

The rapid growth of proactive consumers with distributed power generation and storage capacity, empowered by Internet of Things (IoT) devices, is transforming modern power markets into an independent, flexible, and distributed structure. In…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-10 Md Habib Ullah , Anas Alseyat , Jae-Do Park