Related papers: Overdispersed and Markovian Children
In this paper we consider a sequence of n coin tosses, whose outcome depends on the previous n-1 tosses. In particular, their distribution is not i.i.d. We compute the limiting distribution of this sequence using the method of images.
Initially proposed by Martin Gardner in the 1950s, the famous two-children problem is often presented as a paradox in probability theory. A relatively recent variant of this paradox states that, while in a two-children family for which at…
Given a sequence of numbers $\{p_n\}$ in $[0,1]$, consider the following experiment. First, we flip a fair coin and then, at step $n$, we turn the coin over to the other side with probability $p_n$, $n\ge 2$. What can we say about the…
Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…
The chronicle of prime numbers travel back thousands of years in human history. Not only the traits of prime numbers have surprised people, but also all those endeavors made for ages to find a pattern in the appearance of prime numbers has…
We study the evolution of offspring sex ratios using a game-theoretical model in which the decision to have another child depends on the sex of the previous child. Motivated by higher male infant mortality and the tendency to try again…
Different statistical samples (e.g., from different locations) offer populations and learning systems observations with distinct statistical properties. Samples under (1) 'Unconfounded' growth preserve systems' ability to determine the…
Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is…
Natural populations often show enhanced genetic drift consistent with a strong skew in their offspring number distribution. The skew arises because the variability of family sizes is either inherently strong or amplified by population…
In this paper, we will see that the proportion of d as p th digit, where p > 1 and d $\in$ 0, 9, in data (obtained thanks to the hereunder developed model) is more likely to follow a law whose probability distribution is determined by a…
Opportunities, such as access to education or family background, shape income inequality by influencing the chances of economic success. Unequal opportunities create uncertainty about whether success is merit- or luck-based. We examine how…
We study very simple sorting algorithms based on a probabilistic comparator model. In our model, errors in comparing two elements are due to (1) the energy or effort put in the comparison and (2) the difference between the compared…
This paper develops a nonparametric statistical model of wealth distribution that imposes little structure on the fluctuations of household wealth. In this setting, we use new techniques to obtain a closed-form household-by-household…
We investigate the probability of observing a given pattern of $n$ rises and falls in a random stationary data series. The data are modelled as a sequence of $n+1$ independent and identically distributed random numbers. This probabilistic…
When a beneficial mutation occurs in a population, the new, favored allele may spread to the entire population. This process is known as a selective sweep. Suppose we sample $n$ individuals at the end of a selective sweep. If we focus on a…
Social contexts -- such as families, schools, and neighborhoods -- shape life outcomes. The key question is not simply whether they matter, but rather for whom and under what conditions. Here, we argue that prediction gaps -- differences in…
Consider the family of power divergence statistics based on $n$ trials, each leading to one of $r$ possible outcomes. This includes the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson's statistic as important special cases. It is known that in certain…
A quite old problem has been recently revitalized by Leonard Mlodinow's book The Drunkard's Walk, where it is presented in a way that has definitely confused several people, that wonder why the prevalence of the name of one daughter among…
Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected $350{,}757$ coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing…
We propose a Markov chain approach for the evolution of a genealogical line of genomes. Our idealized genome has $N$ sites and each site can be in state $0$ or $1$. At each time step we pick a site at random. If the site is in state $0$ we…