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Randomness versus selection in genome evolution

Probability 2020-08-11 v1

Abstract

We propose a Markov chain approach for the evolution of a genealogical line of genomes. Our idealized genome has NN sites and each site can be in state 00 or 11. At each time step we pick a site at random. If the site is in state 00 we flip it to state 1 with probability pp or we keep it in state 00 with probability 1p1-p. If the site is in state 11 we flip it to state 0 with probability 1p1-p or we keep it in state 11 with probability pp. Even when state 1 has a selective advantage (i.e. p>1/2p>1/2) the Markov chain is quite unlikely to approach the most fit allele (i.e. all 1's). In fact, randomness (i.e. which site is picked for a possible mutation) and selection (i.e. the value of pp) balance each other out so that the number of 11's in the genome converges to a Gaussian distribution centered around NpNp.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2008.04112,
  title  = {Randomness versus selection in genome evolution},
  author = {Rinaldo B. Schinazi},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2008.04112},
  year   = {2020}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T17:44:59.261Z