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We study Markov processes associated with stochastic differential equations, whose non-linearities are gradients of convex functionals. We prove a general result of existence of such Markov processes and a priori estimates on the transition…
First passage distributions of semi-Markov processes are of interest in fields such as reliability, survival analysis, and many others. The problem of finding or computing first passage distributions is, in general, quite challenging. We…
Predicting when a chaotic trajectory will switch between the lobes of the Lorenz attractor is a long-standing challenge in nonlinear dynamics. This work shows that algebraic conservation laws, constructed by augmenting phase space with…
We consider consistent particle systems, which include independent random walkers, the symmetric exclusion and inclusion processes, as well as the dual of the KMP model. Consistent systems are such that the distribution obtained by first…
We consider a particle performing a stochastic motion on a one-dimensional lattice with jump widths distributed according to a power-law with exponent $\mu + 1$. Assuming that the walker moves in the presence of a distribution $a(x)$ of…
The problem is a log-asymptotics of the probability that the Integrated fractional Brownian motion of index 0<H<1 does not exceed a fixed level during long time. For the growing time interval (0,T) the hypothetical log-asymptotics is…
We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a "space switching" in the situation, when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly non Gaussian, probability density.…
We present a recurrence-transience classification for discrete-time Markov chains on manifolds with negative curvature. Our classification depends only on geometric quantities associated to the increments of the chain, defined via the…
We consider the sample average of a centered random walk in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with regularly varying step size distribution. For the first exit time from a compact convex set $A$ not containing the origin, we show that its tail is of lognormal…
In a recent paper, K. Raschel and R. Garbit proved that the exponential decreasing rate of the probability that a random walk (with all exponential moments) stays in a $d$-dimensional orthant is given by the minimum on this orthant of the…
We present a theory of backward stochastic differential equations in continuous time with an arbitrary filtered probability space. No assumptions are made regarding the left continuity of the filtration, of the predictable quadratic…
The Fourier-Bessel expansion of a function on a circular disc yields a simple series representation for the end-to-end probability distribution function w(R,phi) encountered in a planar persistent random walk, where the direction taken in a…
We prove that any distributional limit of finite planar graphs in which the degree of the root has an exponential tail is almost surely recurrent. As a corollary, we obtain that the uniform infinite planar triangulation and quadrangulation…
As a first step in the first passage problem for passive tracer in stratified porous media, we consider the case of a two-dimensional system consisting of two layers with different convection velocities. Using a lattice generating function…
Linear fractional Galton-Watson branching processes in i.i.d.~random environment are, on the quenched level, intimately connected to random difference equations by the evolution of the random parameters of their linear fractional marginals.…
We consider two reflecting diffusion processes $(X_t)_{t \ge 0}$ with a moving reflection boundary given by a non-decreasing pure jump Markov process $(R_t)_{t \ge 0}$. Between the jumps of the reflection boundary the diffusion part behaves…
We study the problem of sampling from a probability distribution on $\mathbb R^p$ defined via a convex and smooth potential function. We consider a continuous-time diffusion-type process, termed Penalized Langevin dynamics (PLD), the drift…
Consider a discrete-time one-dimensional supercritical branching random walk. We study the probability that there exists an infinite ray in the branching random walk that always lies above the line of slope $\gamma-\epsilon$, where $\gamma$…
In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…
For the last ten years, almost every theoretical result concerning the expected run time of a randomized search heuristic used drift theory, making it the arguably most important tool in this domain. Its success is due to its ease of use…