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We establish exact formulae for the persistence probabilities of an AR(1) sequence with symmetric uniform innovations in terms of certain families of polynomials, most notably a family introduced by Mallows and Riordan as enumerators of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-27 Gerold Alsmeyer , Alin Bostan , Kilian Raschel , Thomas Simon

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with innovations that follow a Laplace distribution. The persistence probabilities can be computed fully explicitly in terms of classical combinatorial…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Frank Aurzada , Kilian Raschel

The survival probability and the first-passage-time statistics are important quantities in different fields. The Wiener process is the simplest stochastic processwith continuous variables, and important results can be explicitly found from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-02-15 Eugenio Urdapilleta

We consider two dimensional random walks conditioned to stay in the positive quadrant. Assuming that the increments of the walk have finite second moments and that the drift vector is co-oriented with one of two axes, we construct positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Tuan Anh Nguyen , Vitali Wachtel

We consider a walker that at each step keeps the same direction with a probabilitythat depends on the time already spent in the direction the walker is currently moving. In this paper, we study some asymptotic properties of this persistent…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-15 Peggy Cénac , Basile De Loynes , Arnaud Le Ny , Yoann Offret

In recent years, there has been an interest in deriving certain important probabilistic results as consequences of deterministic ones; see for instance \cite{beig} and \cite{acc}. In this work, we continue on this path by deducing a well…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-02 Maher Boudabra , Greg Markowsky

Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability \pi. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Cheng-Der Fuh

We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-13 Nina Gantert , Stefan Junk

We consider a run-and-tumble particle on a finite interval $[a,b]$ with two absorbing end points. The particle has an internal velocity state that switches between three values $v,0,-v$ at exponential times, thus incorporating positive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-02 Pascal Grange , Linglong Yuan

We study the first-passage properties of a jump process with constant drift where jump amplitudes and inter-arrival times follow arbitrary light-tailed distributions with smooth densities. Using a mapping to an effective discrete-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-25 Ivan N. Burenev

The statistics of persistent events, recently introduced in the context of phase ordering dynamics, is investigated in the case of the 1D lattice random walk in discrete time. We determine the survival probability of the random walker in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 M. Bauer , C. Godreche , J. M. Luck

When it comes to random walk on the integers $\mathbb{Z}$, the arguably first step of generalization beyond simple random walk is the class of one-sidedly continuous random walk, where the stepsize in only one direction is bounded by 1.…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-10 Timo Vilkas

The presence of temporal correlations in random movement trajectories is a widespread phenomenon across biological, chemical and physical systems. The ubiquity of persistent and anti-persistent motion in many natural and synthetic systems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-07-03 Daniel Marris , Luca Giuggioli

We study the probability that an AR(1) Markov chain $X_{n+1}=aX_n+\xi_{n+1}$, where $a\in(0,1)$ is a constant, stays non-negative for a long time. We find the exact asymptotics of this probability and the weak limit of $X_n$ conditioned to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Vladislav Vysotsky , Vitali Wachtel

The presented explanations are provided for the one--dimensional diffusion process with constant drift by using forward Fokker--Planck technique. We are interested in the outflow probability in a finite interval, i.e. first passage time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-09-12 Julia Hinkel , Reinhard Mahnke

A natural extension of a right-continuous integer-valued random walk is one which can jump to the right by one or two units. First passage times above a given fixed level then admit a tractable Laplace transform (probability generating…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-13 Matija Vidmar

We show that the sequence of moments of order less than 1 of averages of i.i.d. positive random variables is log-concave. For moments of order at least 1, we conjecture that the sequence is log-convex and show that this holds eventually for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Philip Lamkin , Tomasz Tkocz

We investigate the first-passage properties of a jump process with a constant drift, focusing on two key observables: the first-passage time $\tau$ and the number of jumps $n$ before the first-passage event. By mapping the problem onto an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-31 Ivan N. Burenev , Satya N. Majumdar

We investigate random walks on a lattice with imperfect traps. In one dimension, we perturbatively compute the survival probability by reducing the problem to a particle diffusing on a closed ring containing just one single trap. Numerical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 Timo Aspelmeier , Jérôme Magnin , Willi Graupner , Uwe C. Täuber

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of the drift of a continuously observed one-dimensional diffusion with periodic drift. Motivated by computational considerations, van der Meulen e.a. (2014) defined a prior on the drift as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-04 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Jan van Waaij
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