Related papers: E-Values, Bayes Risk, Dual Role of Markov's Inequa…
Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…
The topic of this paper is testing exchangeability using e-values in the batch mode, with the Markov model as alternative. The null hypothesis of exchangeability is formalized as a Kolmogorov-type compression model, and the Bayes mixture of…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
The rejection threshold used for e-values and e-processes is by default set to $1/\alpha$ for a guaranteed type-I error control at $\alpha$, based on Markov's and Ville's inequalities. This threshold can be wasteful in practical…
Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…
We present simple randomized and exchangeable improvements of Markov's inequality, as well as Chebyshev's inequality and Chernoff bounds. Our variants are never worse and typically strictly more powerful than the original inequalities. The…
Consider two random variables contaminated by two unknown transformations. The aim of this paper is to test the equality of those transformations. Two cases are distinguished: first, the two random variables have known distributions.…
A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With p-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation…
We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…
In this study, we propose a two-stage procedure for hypothesis testing, where the first stage is conventional hypothesis testing and the second is an equivalence testing procedure using an introduced Empirical Equivalence Bound. In 2016,…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…
Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike commonly reported p-values for standard null…
Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…
We introduce two new classes of measures of information for statistical experiments which generalise and subsume $\phi$-divergences, integral probability metrics, $\mathfrak{N}$-distances (MMD), and $(f,\Gamma)$ divergences between two or…
The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…
We introduce fully nonparametric two-sample tests for testing the null hypothesis that the samples come from the same distribution if the values are only indirectly given via current status censoring. The tests are based on the likelihood…
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…
The e-value is swiftly rising in prominence in many applications of hypothesis testing and multiple testing, yet its relationship to classical testing theory remains elusive. We unify e-values and classical testing into a single 'continuous…
We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study…
Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to…