English

Testing exchangeability in the batch mode with e-values and Markov alternatives

Methodology 2023-05-10 v1

Abstract

The topic of this paper is testing exchangeability using e-values in the batch mode, with the Markov model as alternative. The null hypothesis of exchangeability is formalized as a Kolmogorov-type compression model, and the Bayes mixture of the Markov model w.r. to the uniform prior is taken as simple alternative hypothesis. Using e-values instead of p-values leads to a computationally efficient testing procedure. In the appendixes I explain connections with the algorithmic theory of randomness and with the traditional theory of testing statistical hypotheses. In the standard statistical terminology, this paper proposes a new permutation test. This test can also be interpreted as a poor man's version of Kolmogorov's deficiency of randomness.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2305.05284,
  title  = {Testing exchangeability in the batch mode with e-values and Markov alternatives},
  author = {Vladimir Vovk},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.05284},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

10 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables

R2 v1 2026-06-28T10:29:35.505Z