Related papers: A Robust Moment System Based on Absolute Deviation…
We investigate the relation between moments and tails of heavy-tailed (in particular, Pareto-type) distributions. We also discuss the sharpness of our results in a number of examples under certain regularity conditions like log-convexity.…
Anomaly detection (AD) is the machine learning task of identifying highly discrepant abnormal samples by solely relying on the consistency of the normal training samples. Under the constraints of a distribution shift, the assumption that…
Missing data is pervasive in econometric applications, and rarely is it plausible that the data are missing (completely) at random. This paper proposes a methodology for studying the robustness of results drawn from incomplete datasets.…
We study the problem of high-dimensional robust mean estimation in an online setting. Specifically, we consider a scenario where $n$ sensors are measuring some common, ongoing phenomenon. At each time step $t=1,2,\ldots,T$, the $i^{th}$…
Unsupervised multivariate time series anomaly detection (UMTSAD) plays a critical role in various domains, including finance, networks, and sensor systems. In recent years, due to the outstanding performance of deep learning in general…
In this paper we introduce an efficient fat-tail measurement framework that is based on the conditional second moments. We construct a goodness-of-fit statistic that has a direct interpretation and can be used to assess the impact of…
We study a scalable alternative to robust gradient descent (RGD) techniques that can be used when the gradients can be heavy-tailed, though this will be unknown to the learner. The core technique is simple: instead of trying to robustly…
An important aspect of the shape of a distribution is the level of asymmetry. Strong asymmetries play a role in many ecosystems and are found in the size and reproductive success of individuals. But the standard third moment coefficient of…
We develop a probabilistic method for assessing the tail behavior and geometric stability of one-dimensional n i.i.d. samples by tracking how their span contracts when the most extreme points are trimmed. Central to our approach is the…
We propose a data-driven framework for learning reduced-order moment dynamics from PDE-governed systems using Neural ODEs. In contrast to derivative-based methods like SINDy, which necessitate densely sampled data and are sensitive to…
For highly skewed or fat-tailed distributions, mean or median-based methods often fail to capture the central tendencies in the data. Despite being a viable alternative, estimating the conditional mode given certain covariates (or mode…
This paper provides a new unified framework for second-moment stability of discrete-time linear systems with stochastic dynamics. Relations of notions of second-moment stability are studied for the systems with general stochastic dynamics,…
We consider the problem of estimating the state transition matrix of a linear time-invariant (LTI) system, given access to multiple independent trajectories sampled from the system. Several recent papers have conducted a non-asymptotic…
Several natural phenomena exhibit long-range conditional dependencies. High-order mixture transition distribution (MTD) are parsimonious non-parametric models to study these phenomena. An MTD is a Markov chain in which the transition…
Real-world machine learning applications often face simultaneous covariate and semantic shifts, challenging traditional domain generalization and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods. We introduce Meta-learned Across Domain…
Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…
A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and…
Heavy rainfall distributional modeling is essential in any impact studies linked to the water cycle, e.g.\ flood risks. Still, statistical analyses that both take into account the temporal and multivariate nature of extreme rainfall are…
In computational and applied statistics, it is of great interest to get fast and accurate calculation for the distributions of the quadratic forms of Gaussian random variables. This paper presents a novel approximation strategy that…
Anomaly detection (AD) plays a vital role across a wide range of real-world domains by identifying data instances that deviate from expected patterns, potentially signaling critical events such as system failures, fraudulent activities, or…