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Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Counterfactual explanations (CFs) offer human-centric insights into machine learning predictions by highlighting minimal changes required to alter an outcome. Therefore, CFs can be used as (i) interventions for abnormality prevention and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Shovito Barua Soumma , Asiful Arefeen , Stephanie M. Carpenter , Melanie Hingle , Hassan Ghasemzadeh

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Yanli Wang , Peng Kuang , Xiaoyu Han , Kaidi Xu , Haohan Wang

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Alignment is a standard procedure to fine-tune pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to follow natural language instructions and serve as helpful AI assistants. We have observed, however, that the conventional alignment process fails to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Sheng-Chieh Lin , Luyu Gao , Barlas Oguz , Wenhan Xiong , Jimmy Lin , Wen-tau Yih , Xilun Chen

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye

Large language models (LLMs) encode parametric knowledge about world facts and have shown remarkable performance in knowledge-driven NLP tasks. However, their reliance on parametric knowledge may cause them to overlook contextual cues,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Wenxuan Zhou , Sheng Zhang , Hoifung Poon , Muhao Chen

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Danyang Li , Yixuan Wang , Matthew Cleaveland , Mingyu Cai , Roberto Tron

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

We identify a previously unknown calibration property of large language models: providing one confirmed intermediate fact toward a multi-step reasoning chain increases the model's confident-wrong-answer rate before full evidence eliminates…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Ashish Balkishan Lathkar

With the vast amount of content uploaded every hour, along with the AI generated content that can include hallucinations, Automated Fact-Checking (AFC) has become increasingly vital, as it is infeasible for human fact-checkers to manually…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Islam Eldifrawi , Shengrui Wang , Amine Trabelsi

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong

While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

In large-scale prediction problems, exhaustively following up on all test units is often impractical and inefficient, motivating a selective reporting strategy that fulfills the dual requirements of informativeness and trustworthiness.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Wangcheng Li , Guanlan Zhao , Xu Guo , Wenguang Sun