Related papers: Rough volatility dynamics in commodity markets
In this article, we apply the forward variance modeling approach by L.Bergomi to the co-terminal swap market model. We build an interest rate model for which all the market price changes of hedging instruments, interest rate swaps and…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
We present a number of related comparison results, which allow to compare moment explosion times, moment generating functions and critical moments between rough and non-rough Heston models of stochastic volatility. All results are based on…
We present a new methodology to analyze large classes of (classical and rough) stochastic volatility models, with special regard to short-time and small noise formulae for option prices. Our main tool is the theory of regularity structures,…
This paper shows the relationship between the forward start volatility swap price and the forward start zero vanna implied volatility of forward start options in rough volatility models. It is shown that in the short time-to-maturity limit…
We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long…
We study an extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model that incorporates rough volatility and jump clustering phenomena. In our model, named the rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model, the spot variance is a rough…
Financial markets for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are an important and rapidly-growing segment of commodities markets. Like other commodities markets, there is an inherent spatial structure to LNG markets, with different price dynamics for…
The literature on volatility modelling and option pricing is a large and diverse area due to its importance and applications. This paper provides a review of the most significant volatility models and option pricing methods, beginning with…
We design three continuous--time models in finite horizon of a commodity price, whose dynamics can be affected by the actions of a representative risk--neutral producer and a representative risk--neutral trader. Depending on the model, the…
We provide explicit small-time formulae for the at-the-money implied volatility, skew and curvature in a large class of models, including rough volatility models and their multi-factor versions. Our general setup encompasses both European…
We propose a tractable extension of the rough Bergomi model, replacing the fractional Brownian motion with a generalised grey Brownian motion, which we show to be reminiscent of models with stochastic volatility of volatility. This…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…
We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…
We develop closed-form expansions for the implied volatility of VIX options within the class of forward variance models. Our approach builds on weak-approximation techniques for VIX option prices and yields explicit implied volatility…
We study pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for a class of Markov processes which we call generalized affine processes and which includes the Black-Scholes model as well as the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as…
We study nearly unstable bivariate cumulative heavy-tailed INAR($\infty$) processes and show that, under a one-factor parameterization and a suitable scaling, they converge to the rough Heston model. This yields a discrete-time…