Related papers: Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event…
Cause-effect chains, as a widely used modeling method in real-time embedded systems, are extensively applied in various safety-critical domains. End-to-end latency, as a key real-time attribute of cause-effect chains, is crucial in many…
Knowledge conflict arises from discrepancies between information in the context of a large language model (LLM) and the knowledge stored in its parameters. This can hurt performance when using standard decoding techniques, which tend to…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
In-context learning enables large language models to perform novel tasks through few-shot demonstrations. However, demonstrations per se can naturally contain noise and conflicting examples, making this capability vulnerable. To understand…
This research aims to know traffic anomalies as early as possible. A traffic anomaly refers to a generic incident on the road that influences traffic flow and calls for urgent traffic management measures. `Knowing'' the occurrence of a…
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…
AI models are already deployed in societies affected by armed conflict, and journalists, humanitarian workers, governments and ordinary citizens rely on them for information or for their work processes. No established practice exists for…
In realistic pursuit-evasion scenarios, abrupt target maneuvers generate unavoidable periods of elevated uncertainty that result in estimation delays. Such delays can degrade interception performance to the point of causing a miss. Existing…
The Correlates of War project scrupulously collects information about disputes between the countries over a long historical period together with other data relevant to the character and reasons of international conflicts. Using methods of…
In January 2026, torrential rains killed 200-300 people across Southern Africa, exposing a critical reality: 60% of the continent lacks effective early warning systems due to infrastructure costs. Traditional radar stations exceed USD 1…
Deep learning (DL) has recently drawn much attention in image analysis, natural language process, and high-dimensional medical data analysis. Under the causal direct acyclic graph (DAG) interpretation, the input variables without incoming…
In time-series analysis, the term "lead-lag effect" is used to describe a delayed effect on a given time series caused by another time series. lead-lag effects are ubiquitous in practice and are specifically critical in formulating…
Autonomous vehicles are continually increasing their presence on public roads. However, before any new autonomous driving software can be approved, it must first undergo a rigorous assessment of driving quality. These quality evaluations…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Time-triggered and event-triggered control strategies for stabilization of an unstable plant over a rate-limited communication channel subject to unknown, bounded delay are studied and compared. Event triggering carries implicit…
Most existing time-to-event methods focus on either single-event or competing-risks settings, leaving multi-event scenarios relatively underexplored. In many healthcare applications, for example, a patient may experience multiple clinical…
One difficulty for real-time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistic problems, infrastructure difficulties and so on. The ability to correct the available…
This thesis presents a novel framework for analysing the societal impacts of armed conflict by applying principles from engineering and material science. Building on the idea of a "social fabric", it recasts communities as plates with…
Due to the rapid growth of social media platforms, these tools have become essential for monitoring information during ongoing disaster events. However, extracting valuable insights requires real-time processing of vast amounts of data. A…
Rather than directly considering the queuing delay of data, this memo focuses on reducing the delay that congestion signals experience within a queue management algorithm, which can be greater than the delay that the data itself experiences…