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Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across natural language tasks, but their ability to forecast violent conflict remains underexplored. We investigate whether LLMs possess meaningful parametric knowledge-encoded…
We propose a dataset for event coreference resolution, which is based on random samples drawn from multiple sources, languages, and countries. Early scholarship on event information collection has not quantified the contribution of event…
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…
Composite temporal event sequence visualizations have included sentinel event alignment techniques to cope with data volume and variety. Prior work has demonstrated the utility of using single-event alignment for understanding the…
We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with…
When a dangerous international crisis begins, leaders need to know whether their next move is going to resolve the dispute or amplify it out of control. Theories of conflict have mainly served to deepen the confusion, revealing fighting,…
Conflicts, like many social processes, are related events that span multiple scales in time, from the instantaneous to multi-year developments, and in space, from one neighborhood to continents. Yet, there is little systematic work on…
Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…
Event temporal reasoning aims at identifying the temporal relations between two or more events from narratives. However, knowledge conflicts arise when there is a mismatch between the actual temporal relations of events in the context and…
The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
While supporting the execution of business processes, information systems record event logs. Conformance checking relies on these logs to analyze whether the recorded behavior of a process conforms to the behavior of a normative…
This paper presents LEMONADE, a large-scale conflict event dataset comprising 39,786 events across 20 languages and 171 countries, with extensive coverage of region-specific entities. LEMONADE is based on a partially reannotated subset of…
Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to continuously adapt policies and social distancing measures depending on the…
Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge…
Event cameras do not produce images, but rather a continuous flow of events, which encode changes of illumination for each pixel independently and asynchronously. While they output temporally rich information, they lack any depth…
Early and accurate detection of anomalous events on the freeway, such as accidents, can improve emergency response and clearance. However, existing delays and errors in event identification and reporting make it a difficult problem to…
Two useful strategies to speed up drug development are to increase the patient accrual rate and use novel adaptive designs. Unfortunately, these two strategies often conflict when the evaluation of the outcome cannot keep pace with the…
Decision-makers often observe the occurrence of events through a reporting process. City governments, for example, rely on resident reports to find and then resolve urban infrastructural problems such as fallen street trees, flooded…