Related papers: Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event…
With an ever evolving cyber domain, delays in reporting incidents are a well-known problem in the cyber insurance industry. Addressing this problem is a requisite to obtaining the true picture of cyber incident rates and to model it…
Natural Language Processing (NLP) of news articles can play an important role in understanding the dynamics and causes of violent conflict. Despite the availability of datasets categorizing various conflict events, the existing labels often…
A delay between the occurrence and the reporting of events often has practical implications such as for the amount of capital to hold for insurance companies, or for taking preventive actions in case of infectious diseases. The accurate…
The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of…
This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…
Afghanistan has witnessed many armed conflicts throughout history, especially in the past 20 years; these events have had a significant impact on human lives, including military and civilians, with potential fatalities. In this research, we…
Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…
Conducting disparity assessments at regular time intervals is critical for surfacing potential biases in decision-making and improving outcomes across demographic groups. Because disparity assessments fundamentally depend on the…
This paper considers the problem of predicting the number of events that have occurred in the past, but which are not yet observed due to a delay. Such delayed events are relevant in predicting the future cost of warranties, pricing…
This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
In this preliminary study, we used the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) database to examine xenophobic events reported in the media during 2022. We collected a dataset of 2,778 unique events and created a choropleth map…
Modern city governance relies heavily on crowdsourcing to identify problems such as downed trees and power lines. A major concern is that residents do not report problems at the same rates, with heterogeneous reporting delays directly…
Epidemic forecasts are only as good as the accuracy of epidemic measurements. Is epidemic data, particularly COVID-19 epidemic data, clean and devoid of noise? Common sense implies the negative answer. While we cannot evaluate the…
We present a novel approach to estimate the delay observed between the occurrence and reporting of rape crimes. We explore spatial, temporal and social effects in sparse aggregated (area-level) and high-dimensional disaggregated…
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from reporting bias. Since the UCDP has strict inclusion criteria,…
Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has…
The WikiLeaks Afghanistan war logs contain nearly $77,000$ reports of incidents in the US-led Afghanistan war, covering the period from January 2004 to December 2009. The recent growth of data on complex social systems and the potential to…
Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…
Conflict fatalities tend to follow heavy-tailed statistical distributions. A 2005 fusion-fission theory predicts mathematically that for armed groups operating in dynamically evolving clusters within a given conflict, the number of…