Related papers: Mortality Forecasting as a Flow Field in Tucker De…
We present a methodology for determining reservoir groundwater age and transit time probability distributions in a deterministic manner, considering advective-dispersive transport in steady velocity fields. In a first step, we propose to…
In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…
In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…
Linearly stable shear flows first transition to turbulence in the form of localised patches. At low Reynolds numbers, these turbulent patches tend to suddenly decay, following a memoryless process typical of rare events. How far in advance…
Intermittent turbulent-laminar patterns characterize the transition to turbulence in pipe, plane Couette and plane channel flows. The time evolution of turbulent-laminar bands in plane channel flow is studied via direct numerical…
Geographic patterns in stroke mortality have been studied as far back as the 1960s, when a region of the southeastern United States became known as the "stroke belt" due to its unusually high rates of stroke mortality. While stroke…
Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…
We propose a Bayesian tensor-on-tensor regression approach to predict a multidimensional array (tensor) of arbitrary dimensions from another tensor of arbitrary dimensions, building upon the Tucker decomposition of the regression…
In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…
Creep under a sustained load can persist for long times yet culminate in abrupt yielding or rupture, implying a finite lifetime even when the material appears solid. Here, we formulate lifetime prediction as Bayesian inference over an…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…
The well-known Lee-Carter model uses a bilinear form $\log(m_{x,t})=a_x+b_xk_t$ to represent the log mortality rate and has been widely researched and developed over the past thirty years. However, there has been little attention being paid…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…