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In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for…

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…

Mortality forecasting is crucial for demographic planning and actuarial studies, especially for projecting population ageing and longevity risk. Classical approaches largely rely on extrapolative methods, such as the Lee-Carter (LC) model,…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

Italy reports some of the lowest levels of mortality in the developed world. Recent evidence, however, suggests that even in low mortality countries improvements may be slowing and regional inequalities widening. This study contributes new…

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…

The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…

Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…

High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…

In this work we present a spatial approach to model and investigate mortality data referenced over a Lexis structure. We decompose the force of mortality into two interpretable components: a Markov random field, smooth with respect to time,…

We introduce a statistical method for modeling and forecasting functional panel data represented by multiple densities. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral and thus do not constitute a linear vector space. We…

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

Standard evolutionary theories of aging and mortality, implicitly based on assumptions of spatial averaging, hold that natural selection cannot favor shorter lifespan without direct compensating benefit to individual reproductive success.…

In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been…

Understanding and forecasting mortality by cause is an essential branch of actuarial science, with wide-ranging implications for decision-makers in public policy and industry. To accurately capture trends in cause-specific mortality, it is…

Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…