Related papers: Early warning signals for primary and secondary bi…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
The emergence of periodic oscillations is observed in various complex systems in nature and engineering. Thermoacoustic oscillations in systems comprising turbulent reactive flow exemplify such complexity in the engineering context, where…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
We develop an early-warning signal for bifurcations of one-dimensional random difference equations with additive bounded noise, based on the asymptotic behaviour of the stationary density near a boundary of its support. We demonstrate the…
We consider discrete-time one-dimensional random dynamical systems with bounded noise, which generate an associated set-valued dynamical system. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a discontinuous bifurcation of a minimal…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called…
Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…
Warning signs for tipping points (or critical transitions) have been very actively studied. Although the theory has been applied successfully in models and in experiments for many complex systems such as for tipping in climate systems,…
Oscillatory dynamics are ubiquitous in biological networks. Possible sources of oscillations are well understood in low-dimensional systems, but have not been fully explored in high-dimensional networks. Here we study large networks…
Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…
In this paper, we study the applicability of an early warning index while studying the transitions to complete and generalized synchronizations in the coupled oscillator models using an unconventional system parameter and the coupling…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterized by abrupt seizures. Although seizures may appear random, they are often preceded by early warning signs in neural signals, notably, critical slowing down, a phenomenon in which the…
Social ecological systems are often difficult to investigate and manage because of their inherent complexity1. Small variations in external drivers can lead to abrupt changes associated with instabilities and bifurcations in the underlying…