English
Related papers

Related papers: Shape-Adaptive Conditional Calibration for Conform…

200 papers

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Conformal prediction can be used to construct prediction sets that cover the true outcome with a desired probability, but can sometimes lead to large prediction sets that are costly in practice. The most useful outcome is a singleton…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Tao Wang , Yan Sun , Edgar Dobriban

Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Yu Gui , Rina Foygel Barber , Cong Ma

Conformal predictors are an important class of algorithms that allow predictions to be made with a user-defined confidence level. They are able to do this by outputting prediction sets, rather than simple point predictions. The conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Anthony Bellotti

Robust optimal or min-max model predictive control (MPC) approaches aim to guarantee constraint satisfaction over a known, bounded uncertainty set while minimizing a worst-case performance bound. Traditionally, these methods compute a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-04 J. Wehbeh , E. C. Kerrigan

In this work, we aim to calibrate the score outputs of an estimator for the binary classification problem by finding an 'optimal' mapping to class probabilities, where the 'optimal' mapping is in the sense that minimizes the classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Kaan Gokcesu , Hakan Gokcesu

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jerzy Wieczorek

We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-27 Jing Lei , Larry Wasserman

Composite minimization is a powerful framework in large-scale convex optimization, based on decoupling of the objective function into terms with structurally different properties and allowing for more flexible algorithmic design. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-17 Jelena Diakonikolas , Cristóbal Guzmán

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

We present a novel deep learning-based framework: Embedded Feature Similarity Optimization with Specific Parameter Initialization (SOPI) for 2D/3D medical image registration which is a most challenging problem due to the difficulty such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Minheng Chen , Zhirun Zhang , Shuheng Gu , Youyong Kong

Industrial experimental designs frequently lack optimal space-filling properties, rendering them unrepresentative. This study presents a comprehensive methodology to refine existing designs by enhancing coverage quality while optimizing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Thomas Bartz-Beielstein , Eva Bartz , Alexander Hinterleitner , Christoph Leitenmeier , Ihab Abd El Hussein

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, posterior approximations obtained with SBI are often…

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-15 Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach