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We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$. While traditional online conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Sreenivas Gollapudi , Kostas Kollias , Kamesh Munagala , Ali Sinop

This work proposes an implementable proximal-type method for a broad class of optimization problems involving nonsmooth and nonconvex objective and constraint functions. In contrast to existing methods that rely on an ad hoc model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Gregorio M. Sempere , Welington de Oliveira , Johannes O. Royset

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Phase type (PH) distributions are widely used in modeling and simulation due to their generality and analytical properties. In such settings, it is often necessary to construct a PH distribution that aligns with real-world data by matching…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Eliran Sherzer , Yehezkel Resheff , Miklos Telek

Inspired by regularization techniques in statistics and machine learning, we study complementary composite minimization in the stochastic setting. This problem corresponds to the minimization of the sum of a (weakly) smooth function endowed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Alexandre d'Aspremont , Cristóbal Guzmán , Clément Lezane

We develop an approach for estimating models described via conditional moment restrictions, with a prototypical application being non-parametric instrumental variable regression. We introduce a min-max criterion function, under which the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-15 Nishanth Dikkala , Greg Lewis , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Deep learning based cervical cancer classification can potentially increase access to screening in low-resource regions. However, deep learning models are often overconfident and do not reliably reflect diagnostic uncertainty. Moreover,…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-15 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Antti Suutala , Dmitrii Bychkov , Hakan Kücükel , Joar von Bahr , Milda Poceviciute , Johan Lundin , Nina Linder , Claes Lundström

Many real-world classification problems, such as plant identification, have extremely long-tailed class distributions. In order for prediction sets to be useful in such settings, they should (i) provide good class-conditional coverage,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Tiffany Ding , Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Joseph Salmon

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Inverse optimization has been increasingly used to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model based on decision data. We show that such a point estimation is insufficient in a prescriptive setting where the estimated parameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Bo Lin , Erick Delage , Timothy C. Y. Chan

AI tools can be useful to address model deficits in the design of communication systems. However, conventional learning-based AI algorithms yield poorly calibrated decisions, unabling to quantify their outputs uncertainty. While Bayesian…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-02 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

We develop a new approximative estimation method for conditional Shapley values obtained using a linear regression model. We develop a new estimation method and outperform existing methodology and implementations. Compared to the sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Fredrik Lohne Aanes

Online conformal prediction has demonstrated its capability to construct a prediction set for each incoming data point that covers the true label with a predetermined probability. To cope with potential distribution shift, multi-model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guaranties for regression; yet existing methods assume Euclidean output spaces and produce prediction regions that are poorly calibrated when responses lie on Riemannian manifolds. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi , Ali Baheri

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Paolo Toccaceli , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi