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In real-world recommender systems and search engines, optimizing ranking decisions to present a ranked list of relevant items is critical. Off-policy evaluation (OPE) for ranking policies is thus gaining a growing interest because it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Haruka Kiyohara , Yuta Saito , Tatsuya Matsuhiro , Yusuke Narita , Nobuyuki Shimizu , Yasuo Yamamoto

Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Kaiwen Wang , Zhengyuan Zhou

Off-policy estimation (OPE) methods enable unbiased offline evaluation of recommender systems, directly estimating the online reward some target policy would have obtained, from offline data and with statistical guarantees. The theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Olivier Jeunen

Win measures, including the win ratio (WR), win odds (WO), net benefit (NB), and desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR), are increasingly used in randomized clinical trials with multiple hierarchical ordinal endpoints. In practice, however,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yi Liu , Huiman Barnhart , Sean O'Brien , Yuliya Lokhnygina , Roland A. Matsouaka

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a critical challenge in robust decision-making that seeks to assess the performance of a new policy using data collected under a different policy. However, the existing OPE methodologies suffer from several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq

We study off-policy evaluation in the setting of contextual bandits, where we aim to evaluate a new policy using historical data that consists of contexts, actions and received rewards. This historical data typically does not faithfully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Rong J. B. Zhu

Randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes have traditionally used the log-rank test followed by the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model to estimate the hazard ratio between the treatment groups. These are valid under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jiyu Luo , Ronghui Xu

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) holds the promise of being able to leverage large, offline datasets for both evaluating and selecting complex policies for decision making. The ability to learn offline is particularly important in many…

Ranking interfaces are everywhere in online platforms. There is thus an ever growing interest in their Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE), aiming towards an accurate performance evaluation of ranking policies using logged data. A de-facto approach…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Haruka Kiyohara , Masatoshi Uehara , Yusuke Narita , Nobuyuki Shimizu , Yasuo Yamamoto , Yuta Saito

In applying reinforcement learning (RL) to high-stakes domains, quantitative and qualitative evaluation using observational data can help practitioners understand the generalization performance of new policies. However, this type of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Shengpu Tang , Jenna Wiens

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. We consider for the first time the semiparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Nathan Kallus , Masatoshi Uehara

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a target treatment policy (e.g., a recommender system) using data collected by a different logging policy. It enables high-stakes experimentation without live deployment, yet in practice…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-18 Connor Douglas , Joel Persson , Foster Provost

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) constructs confidence intervals for the value of a target policy using data generated under a different behavior policy. Most existing inference methods focus on fixed target policies and may fail when the target…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Haoyu Wei

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) aims to accurately evaluate the performance of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data. Although many estimators have been developed, there is no single estimator that dominates the others, because…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Takuma Udagawa , Haruka Kiyohara , Yusuke Narita , Yuta Saito , Kei Tateno

Evaluating the performance of a prediction model is a common task in medical statistics. Standard accuracy metrics require the observation of the true outcomes. This is typically not possible in the setting with time-to-event outcomes due…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Zhenwei Yang , Dimitris Rizopoulos , Lisa F. Newcomb , Nicole S. Erler

Reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to learn treatment policies and aid decision making in healthcare. However, given the need for generalization over complex state/action spaces, the incorporation of function approximators (e.g., deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Shengpu Tang , Jenna Wiens

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the value of a target policy using offline data collected from potentially different policies. In real-world applications, however, logged data often suffers from missingness. While OPE has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-10 Han Wang , Yang Xu , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Across health applications, researchers model outcomes as a function of time to an event, but the event time is right-censored for participants who exit the study or otherwise do not experience the event during follow-up. When censoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Jesus E. Vazquez , Yanyuan Ma , Karen Marder , Tanya P. Garcia

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) and off-policy learning (OPL) are foundational for decision-making in offline contextual bandits. Recent advances in OPL primarily optimize OPE estimators with improved statistical properties, assuming that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-04 Imad Aouali , Otmane Sakhi

Reinforcement learning (RL) is one of the most vibrant research frontiers in machine learning and has been recently applied to solve a number of challenging problems. In this paper, we primarily focus on off-policy evaluation (OPE), one of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-14 Masatoshi Uehara , Chengchun Shi , Nathan Kallus