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We propose a new method to approximate the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs by means of computing guaranteed bounds. The starting point of our work is an interval-based trace semantics for a recursive, higher-order…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Raven Beutner , Luke Ong , Fabian Zaiser

Computing the posterior distribution of a probabilistic program is a hard task for which no one-fit-for-all solution exists. We propose Gaussian Semantics, which approximates the exact probabilistic semantics of a bounded program by means…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Francesca Randone , Luca Bortolussi , Emilio Incerto , Mirco Tribastone

The analogy between determinantal point processes (DPPs) and free fermionic calculi is well-known. We point out that, from the perspective of free fermionic algebras, Pfaffian point processes (PfPPs) naturally emerge, and show that a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Shinji Koshida

Universal probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) provide a powerful framework for specifying rich probabilistic models. They further attempt to automate the process of drawing inferences from these models, but doing this successfully is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-17 Yuan Zhou , Hongseok Yang , Yee Whye Teh , Tom Rainforth

Many practical techniques for probabilistic inference require a sequence of distributions that interpolate between a tractable distribution and an intractable distribution of interest. Usually, the sequences used are simple, e.g., based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-09-11 Andreas Stuhlmüller , Robert X. D. Hawkins , N. Siddharth , Noah D. Goodman

Probabilistic programming is a programming paradigm for expressing flexible probabilistic models. Implementations of probabilistic programming languages employ a variety of inference algorithms, where sequential Monte Carlo methods are…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2018-12-19 Daniel Lundén , David Broman , Fredrik Ronquist , Lawrence M. Murray

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

It is natural for probabilistic programs to use conditionals to express alternative substructures in models, and loops (recursion) to express repeated substructures in models. Thus, probabilistic programs with conditionals and recursion…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2020-10-26 David Chiang , Chung-chieh Shan

This paper addresses the issue of estimating the expectation of a real-valued random variable of the form $X = g(\mathbf{U})$ where $g$ is a deterministic function and $\mathbf{U}$ can be a random finite- or infinite-dimensional vector.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-09-10 Clément Walter

Given a graphical model (GM), computing its partition function is the most essential inference task, but it is computationally intractable in general. To address the issue, iterative approximation algorithms exploring certain local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Sejun Park , Eunho Yang , Se-Young Yun , Jinwoo Shin

The Feynman-Kac formulae (FKF) express local solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs) as expectations with respect to some complementary stochastic differential equation (SDE). Repeatedly sampling paths from the complementary SDE…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-15 Jake Carson , Murray Pollock , Mark Girolami

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-14 Axel Finke , Arnaud Doucet , Adam M. Johansen

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a class of algorithms that approximate high-dimensional expectations of a Markov chain. SMC algorithms typically include a resampling step. There are many possible ways to resample, but the relative…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-04-01 Robert J. Webber

By formulating the inverse problem of partial differential equations (PDEs) as a statistical inference problem, the Bayesian approach provides a general framework for quantifying uncertainties. In the inverse problem of PDEs, parameters are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Haoyu Lu , Junxiong Jia , Deyu Meng

This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-20 Jan-Willem van de Meent , Brooks Paige , Hongseok Yang , Frank Wood

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-18 Shixiang Gu , Zoubin Ghahramani , Richard E. Turner

We study structural aspects of randomized parameterized computation. We introduce a new class ${\sf W[P]}$-${\sf PFPT}$ as a natural parameterized analogue of ${\sf PP}$. Our definition uses the machine based characterization of the…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2014-09-30 Ankit Chauhan , B. V. Raghavendra Rao

The paper is devoted to the construction of a probabilistic particle algorithm. This is related to nonlin-ear forward Feynman-Kac type equation, which represents the solution of a nonconservative semilinear parabolic Partial Differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-15 Anthony Le Cavil , Nadia Oudjane , Francesco Russo

We introduce a new setting, the category of $\omega$PAP spaces, for reasoning denotationally about expressive differentiable and probabilistic programming languages. Our semantics is general enough to assign meanings to most practical…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-05-29 Mathieu Huot , Alexander K. Lew , Vikash K. Mansinghka , Sam Staton

Differentiable programming has emerged as a key programming paradigm empowering rapid developments of deep learning while its applications to important computational methods such as Monte Carlo remain largely unexplored. Here we present the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-08-28 Shi-Xin Zhang , Zhou-Quan Wan , Hong Yao