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This paper introduces a new technique for quantifying the approximation error of a broad class of probabilistic inference programs, including ones based on both variational and Monte Carlo approaches. The key idea is to derive a subjective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-02 Marco F Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K Mansinghka

We present a theory for slicing probabilistic imperative programs -- containing random assignments, and ``observe'' statements (for conditioning) -- represented as probabilistic control-flow graphs (pCFGs) whose nodes modify probability…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Torben Amtoft , Anindya Banerjee

This paper presents generalizations of semidefinite programming formulations of 1-norm optimization problems over infinite dictionaries of vectors of complex exponentials, which were recently proposed for superresolution, gridless…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-04-12 Hsiao-Han Chao , Lieven Vandenberghe

We investigate the performance of a class of particle filters (PFs) that can automatically tune their computational complexity by evaluating online certain predictive statistics which are invariant for a broad class of state-space models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-26 Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez , Petar M. Djurić

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-09 Ryan Martin

Multiproposal MCMC (MP-MCMC) algorithms use clouds of proposals to efficiently traverse state spaces and overcome complex target geometries. While MCMC methods are embarrassingly parallel by nature, the non-trivial forms of parallelism…

Parallel parameterized complexity theory studies how fixed-parameter tractable (fpt) problems can be solved in parallel. Previous theoretical work focused on parallel algorithms that are very fast in principle, but did not take into account…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Max Bannach , Malte Skambath , Till Tantau

A compiler's intermediate representation (IR) defines a program's execution plan by encoding its instructions and their relative order. Compiler optimizations aim to replace a given execution plan with a semantically-equivalent one that…

Particle Filtering (PF) methods are an established class of procedures for performing inference in non-linear state-space models. Resampling is a key ingredient of PF, necessary to obtain low variance likelihood and states estimates.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-01 Adrien Corenflos , James Thornton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We study the semantic foundation of expressive probabilistic programming languages, that support higher-order functions, continuous distributions, and soft constraints (such as Anglican, Church, and Venture). We define a metalanguage (an…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-03-31 Sam Staton , Hongseok Yang , Chris Heunen , Ohad Kammar , Frank Wood

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-09 Cory McCartan , Kosuke Imai

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

Programs that combine I/O and countable probabilistic choice, modulo either bisimilarity or trace equivalence, can be seen as describing a probabilistic strategy. For well-founded programs, we might expect to axiomatize bisimilarity via a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Nathan Bowler , Sergey Goncharov , Paul Blain Levy

Auxiliary particle filters (APFs) are a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models. In their original derivation, APFs operate in an extended state space using an auxiliary variable to improve…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-17 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

We study the problem of optimal estimation and control of linear systems using quantized measurements, with a focus on applications over sensor networks. We show that the state conditioned on a causal quantization of the measurements can be…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Ravi Teja Sukhavasi , Babak Hassibi

Parametric verification of linear temporal properties for stochastic models can be expressed as computing the satisfaction probability of a certain property as a function of the parameters of the model. Smoothed model checking (smMC) aims…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Luca Bortolussi , Francesca Cairoli , Ginevra Carbone , Paolo Pulcini

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-14 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

In this work, we study the fully automated inference of expected result values of probabilistic programs in the presence of natural programming constructs such as procedures, local variables and recursion. While crucial, capturing these…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Martin Avanzini , Georg Moser , Michael Schaper
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