Related papers: Teleological Inference in Structural Causal Models…
In this work, we present sequence-driven structural causal models (SD-SCMs), a framework for specifying causal models with user-defined structure and language-model-defined mechanisms. We characterize how an SD-SCM enables sampling from…
Contemporary machine learning optimizes for predictive accuracy, yet systems that achieve state of the art performance remain causally opaque: their internal representations provide no principled handle for intervention. We can retrain such…
We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…
Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…
Precision medicine involves answering counterfactual questions such as "Would this patient respond better to treatment A or treatment B?" These types of questions are causal in nature and require the tools of causal inference to be…
Linear structural causal models (SCMs) -- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources -- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery.…
Structural Causal Models (SCMs) provide a popular causal modeling framework. In this work, we show that SCMs are not flexible enough to give a complete causal representation of dynamical systems at equilibrium. Instead, we propose a…
Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) that formalize causal systems where latent contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs provide an…
In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…
This paper aims to extend the framework of causal modelling to teleological explanations. It conceives final models as second-order models produced by interventions on first-order causal models. It shows why such formalisation permits us to…
We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on…
Explanatory studies, such as randomized controlled trials, are targeted to extract the true causal effect of interventions on outcomes and are by design adjusted for covariates through randomization. On the contrary, observational studies…
As language models (LMs) deliver increasing performance on a range of NLP tasks, probing classifiers have become an indispensable technique in the effort to better understand their inner workings. A typical setup involves (1) defining an…
Accurately predicting opponents' behavior from interactions is a fundamental capability for large language model (LLM)-based agents in multi-agent and game-theoretic environments. Existing approaches often entangle opponent modeling with…
Causal models, also known as Structural Equation Models (SEM), are a well-known formalism for representing and reasoning about causal dependencies between events. In this paper, we show that Temporal SEMs (TSEMs), which extend SEMs to…
Deep generative models have shown tremendous capability in data density estimation and data generation from finite samples. While these models have shown impressive performance by learning correlations among features in the data, some…
This paper presents a topological learning-theoretic perspective on causal inference by introducing a series of topologies defined on general spaces of structural causal models (SCMs). As an illustration of the framework we prove a…
Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…
We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…
The aim of this paper is to extend the framework of causal inference, in particular as it has been developed by Judea Pearl, in order to model actions and identify their intended effects, in the direction opened by Elisabeth Anscombe. We…