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Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

We introduce BEDS (Bayesian Emergent Dissipative Structures), a formal framework for analyzing inference systems that must maintain beliefs continuously under energy constraints. Unlike classical computational models that assume perfect…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Laurent Caraffa

We propose an algorithm for Bayesian functional optimisation - that is, finding the function to optimise a process - guided by experimenter beliefs and intuitions regarding the expected characteristics (length-scale, smoothness, cyclicity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Alistair Shilton , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

The conventional approach to Bayesian decision-theoretic experiment design involves searching over possible experiments to select a design that maximizes the expected value of a specified utility function. The expectation is over the joint…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Tommie A. Catanach , Niladri Das

The spectral energy distribution (SED) is a relatively easy way for astronomers to distinguish between different astronomical objects such as galaxies, black holes, and stellar objects. By comparing the observations from a source at…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-13 Justin J. Yang , Xufei Wang , Pavlos Protopapas , Luke Bornn

We develop a semi-amortized, policy-based, approach to Bayesian experimental design (BED) called Stepwise Deep Adaptive Design (Step-DAD). Like existing, fully amortized, policy-based BED approaches, Step-DAD trains a design policy upfront…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Marcel Hedman , Desi R. Ivanova , Cong Guan , Tom Rainforth

We propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-26 Mohammad Motamed , N. Anders Petersson

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-10 A. Spurio Mancini , M. M. Docherty , M. A. Price , J. D. McEwen

Parameter calibration is essential for reducing uncertainty and improving predictive fidelity in physics-based models, yet it is often limited by the high computational cost of model evaluations. Bayesian calibration methods provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Maike F. Holthuijzen , Atlanta Chakraborty , Elizabeth Krath , Tommie Catanach

Computer experiments have become an indispensable alternative to complex physical and engineering experiments. The Kriging model is the most widely used surrogate model, with the core goal of minimizing the discrepancy between the surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Ruonan Zheng , Min-Qian Liu , Yongdao Zhou , Xuan Chen

The increase in complexity of autonomous systems is accompanied by a need of data-driven development and validation strategies. Advances in computer graphics and cloud clusters have opened the way to massive parallel high fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-05 Osama Maqbool , Jürgen Roßmann

We propose a general methodology of sequential locally optimal design of experiments for explicit or implicit nonlinear models, as they abound in chemical engineering and, in particular, in vapor-liquid equilibrium modeling. As a sequential…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-15 Martin Bubel , Jochen Schmid , Volodymyr Kozachynskyi , Erik Esche , Michael Bortz

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for both covariate selection and sparse precision matrix estimation in the context of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models involving multiple responses. Our approach provides a sparse estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-25 Anwesha Chakravarti , Naveen N. Narishetty , Feng Liang

Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Giovanni Toto , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constructions of copulas that accommodate a spatial-random-effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Alan Pearse , David Gunawan , Noel Cressie

In many science and industry settings, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been widely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Roubing Tang , Sabina J. Sloman , Samuel Kaski

The performance of deep (reinforcement) learning systems crucially depends on the choice of hyperparameters. Their tuning is notoriously expensive, typically requiring an iterative training process to run for numerous steps to convergence.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Vu Nguyen , Sebastian Schulze , Michael A Osborne

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Vojtech Kejzlar , Mookyong Son , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti