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One of the well-known challenges in optimal experimental design is how to efficiently estimate the nested integrations of the expected information gain. The Gaussian approximation and associated importance sampling have been shown to be…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Quan Long

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Yongsheng Mei , Mahdi Imani , Tian Lan

In recent years, leveraging parallel and distributed computational resources has become essential to solve problems of high computational cost. Bayesian optimization (BO) has shown attractive results in those expensive-to-evaluate problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-25 Masahiro Nomura

In experimental design, we are given $n$ vectors in $d$ dimensions, and our goal is to select $k\ll n$ of them to perform expensive measurements, e.g., to obtain labels/responses, for a linear regression task. Many statistical criteria have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Michał Dereziński , Feynman Liang , Michael W. Mahoney

We consider a ranking and selection (R&S) problem with the goal to select a system with the largest or smallest expected performance measure among a number of simulated systems with a pre-specified probability of correct selection. Fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 A. B. Dieker , Seong-Hee Kim

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

Finite-horizon sequential experimental design (SED) arises naturally in many contexts, including hyperparameter tuning in machine learning among more traditional settings. Computing the optimal policy for such problems requires solving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Shali Jiang , Henry Chai , Javier Gonzalez , Roman Garnett

Thanks to computing power increase, the certification and the conception of complex systems relies more and more on simulation. To this end, predictive codes are needed, which have generally to be evaluated in a huge number of input points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-06 Sophie Marque-Pucheu , Guillaume Perrin , Josselin Garnier

We study the problem of selecting $k$ experiments from a larger candidate pool, where the goal is to maximize mutual information (MI) between the selected subset and the underlying parameters. Finding the exact solution is to this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-26 Fengyi Li , Ayoub Belhadji , Youssef Marzouk

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

Large-scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; yet, high-fidelity models can often be complex and computationally prohibitive for optimization. A practical alternative is to use a low-fidelity model to facilitate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Madhusudan Madhavan , Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

The advancement and scaling of quantum technology has made the learning and identification of quantum systems and devices in highly-multidimensional parameter spaces a pressing task for a variety of applications. In many cases, the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-20 Federico Belliardo , Erik M. Gauger , Tim H. Taminiau , Yoann Altmann , Cristian Bonato

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 M-Z. Spyropoulou , J. Hopker , J. E. Griffin

The design of structural & functional materials for specialized applications is being fueled by rapid advancements in materials synthesis, characterization, manufacturing, with sophisticated computational materials modeling frameworks that…

We consider the sequential experimental design problem in the predict-then-optimize paradigm. In this paradigm, the outputs of the prediction model are used as coefficient vectors in a downstream linear optimization problem. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Beichen Wan , Mo Liu , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Here we introduce a new design framework for synthetic biology that exploits the advantages of Bayesian model selection. We will argue that the difference between inference and design is that in the former we try to reconstruct the system…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Chris Barnes , Daniel Silk , Xia Sheng , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-16 Jake Callahan , Kevin Monogue , Ruben Villarreal , Tommie Catanach

Calibration of expensive simulation models involves an emulator based on simulation outputs generated across various parameter settings to replace the actual model. Noisy outputs of stochastic simulation models require many simulation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Özge Sürer

We propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MF-BO) framework that integrates computational fluid dynamics (CFD) evaluations with Gaussian-process surrogates to efficiently navigate the accuracy-cost trade-off induced by mesh…