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Forecasting future weather and climate is inherently difficult. Machine learning offers new approaches to increase the accuracy and computational efficiency of forecasts, but current methods are unable to accurately model uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Yusuke Hatanaka , Yannik Glaser , Geoff Galgon , Giuseppe Torri , Peter Sadowski

Traditionally, numerical models have been deployed in oceanography studies to simulate ocean dynamics by representing physical equations. However, many factors pertaining to ocean dynamics seem to be ill-defined. We argue that transferring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Yuxin Meng , Feng Gao , Eric Rigall , Ran Dong , Junyu Dong , Qian Du

The advancements in the state of the art of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) brought by diffusion models can be highly beneficial in novel contexts involving Earth observation data. After introducing this new family of generative…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Fulvio Sanguigni , Mikolaj Czerkawski , Lorenzo Papa , Irene Amerini , Bertrand Le Saux

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have emerged as the dominant model for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Despite their success, they fail to model intrinsic uncertainties within STG data, which cripples their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Haomin Wen , Youfang Lin , Yutong Xia , Huaiyu Wan , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Yuxuan Liang

Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained…

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical…

Accurate precipitation estimation is critical for flood forecasting, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. Satellite products provide global hourly coverage but contain systematic biases; ground-based gauges are accurate at…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Shunya Nagashima , Takumi Bannai , Shuitsu Koyama , Tomoya Mitsui , Shuntaro Suzuki

Score-based diffusion modeling is a generative machine learning algorithm that can be used to sample from complex distributions. They achieve this by learning a score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-probability density of the data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Dibyajyoti Chakraborty , Haiwen Guan , Jason Stock , Troy Arcomano , Guido Cervone , Romit Maulik

Predicting Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region is crucial for the effective management of its fragile ecosystems. This study provides a rigorous comparative analysis of several machine learning techniques to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-26 Dennis Quayesam , Jacob Akubire , Oliveira Darkwah

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions from satellite images affected by cloud gaps have been extensively documented in the past three decades. Here we describe several Machine Learning models to fill the cloud-occluded areas…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Andrea Asperti , Ali Aydogdu , Angelo Greco , Fabio Merizzi , Pietro Miraglio , Beniamino Tartufoli , Alessandro Testa , Nadia Pinardi , Paolo Oddo

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open…

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable generative capabilities in image processing tasks. We propose a Sparse condition Temporal Rewighted Integrated Distribution Estimation guided diffusion model (STRIDE) for sparse-view CT…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Zekun Zhou , Yanru Gong , Liu Shi , Qiegen Liu

The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and top-of-atmosphere radiation can be estimated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Senne Van Loon , Maria Rugenstein , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Many real-world applications rely on land surface temperature (LST) data at high spatiotemporal resolution. In complex urban areas, LST exhibits significant variations, fluctuating dramatically within and across city blocks. Landsat…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Shengjie Liu , Siqin Wang , Lu Zhang

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Salva Rühling Cachay , Bo Zhao , Hailey Joren , Rose Yu

In this study, we introduce a novel approach to synthesizing subsurface velocity models using diffusion generative models. Conventional methods rely on extensive, high-quality datasets, which are often inaccessible in subsurface…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-11 Huseyin Tuna Erdinc , Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann

Seismic wave generation creates labeled waveform datasets for source parameter inversion, subsurface analysis, and, notably, training artificial intelligence seismology models. Traditionally, seismic wave generation has been time-consuming,…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-09-23 Longfei Duan , Zicheng Zhang , Lianqing Zhou , Congying Han , Lei Bai , Tiande Guo , Cuiping Zhao

In this work, we estimate extreme sea surface temperature (SST) hotspots, i.e., high threshold exceedance regions, for the Red Sea, a vital region of high biodiversity. We analyze high-resolution satellite-derived SST data comprising daily…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-20 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser

The dominant paradigm in machine learning is to assess model performance based on average loss across all samples in some test set. This amounts to averaging performance geospatially across the Earth in weather and climate settings, failing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Nick Masi , Randall Balestriero