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We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Cecilia Mancini

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

In this paper we consider a diffusion process obtained as a small random perturbation of a dynamical system attracted to a stable equilibrium point. The drift and the diffusive perturbation are assumed to evolve slowly in time. We describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-23 Mark Freidlin , Leonid Koralov

We study the stochastic diffusive limit of a kinetic radiative transfer equation, which is non-linear, involving a small parameter and perturbed by a smooth random term. Under an appropriate scaling for the small parameter, using a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-05-13 Arnaud Debussche , Sylvain De Moor , Julien Vovelle

We study the problem of parameter estimation using maximum likelihood for fast/slow systems of stochastic differential equations. Our aim is to shed light on the problem of model/data mismatch at small scales. We consider two classes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-20 A. Papavasiliou , G. A. Pavliotis , A. M. Stuart

Consider discrete values of functions shifted by unobserved translation effects, which are independent realizations of a random variable with unknown distribution $\mu$, modeling the variability in the response of each individual. Our aim…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Ismael Castillo , Jean-Michel Loubes

This paper concerns the mathematical analyses of the diffusion model in machine learning. The drift term of the backward sampling process is represented as a conditional expectation involving the data distribution and the forward diffusion.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Yubin Lu , Zhongjian Wang , Guillaume Bal

We study parameter estimation for univariate stochastic differential equations with locally Lipschitz drift and H\"older continuous multiplicative diffusion, a class commonly arising in several applications. Existing inference methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Bowen Fang , Dario Spanò , Massimiliano Tamborrino

We study the effect of stochastic sampling on the estimation of the drift parameter of continuous time AR(1) process. A natural distribution free moment estimator is considered for the drift based on stochastically observed time points. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-29 Radhendushka Srivastava , Ping Li

We introduce verifiable criteria for weak posterior consistency of identifiable Bayesian nonparametric inference for jump diffusions with unit diffusion coefficient and uniformly Lipschitz drift and jump coefficients in arbitrary dimension.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-13 Jere Koskela , Dario Spano , Paul A. Jenkins

We study evolution equations of drift-diffusion type when various parameters are random. Motivated by applications in pedestrian dynamics, we focus on the case when the total mass is, due to boundary or reaction terms, not conserved. After…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-28 Greta Marino , Jan-Frederik Pietschmann , Alois Pichler

We present regularity results for nonlinear drift-diffusion equations of porous medium type (together with their incompressible limit). We relax the assumptions imposed on the drift term with respect to previous results and additionally…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Noemi David , Filippo Santambrogio , Markus Schmidtchen

We consider a stochastic differential equation of the form \[dX_t=\theta a(t,X_t)\,dt+\sigma_1(t,X_t)\sigma_2(t,Y_t)\,dW_t\] with multiplicative stochastic volatility, where $Y$ is some adapted stochastic process. We prove…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-06 Meriem Bel Hadj Khlifa , Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko , Mounir Zili

Diffusion approximation provides weak approximation for stochastic gradient descent algorithms in a finite time horizon. In this paper, we introduce new tools motivated by the backward error analysis of numerical stochastic differential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-05 Yuanyuan Feng , Tingran Gao , Lei Li , Jian-Guo Liu , Yulong Lu

Estimating function inference is indispensable for many common point process models where the joint intensities are tractable while the likelihood function is not. In this paper we establish asymptotic normality of estimating function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-18 Frédéric Lavancier , Arnaud Poinas , Rasmus Waagepetersen

We provide a general method to analyze the asymptotic properties of a variety of estimators of continuous time diffusion processes when the data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yacine Ait-Sahalia , Per A. Mykland

We study the problem of parameter estimation for reflected stochastic processes driven by a standard Brownian motion. The estimator is obtained using nonlinear least squares method based on discretely observed processes. Under some certain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Han Yuecai , Zhang Dingwen

We study the problem of unbiased estimation of expectations with respect to (w.r.t.) $\pi$ a given, general probability measure on $(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d))$ that is absolutely continuous with respect to a standard Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-26 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-29 Gabriele Abbati , Philippe Wenk , Michael A Osborne , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer

This paper studies the limit of a kinetic evolution equation involving a small parameter and driven by a random process which also scales with the small parameter. In order to prove the convergence in distribution to the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Shmuel Rakotonirina-Ricquebourg
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