Related papers: Hierarchy of extreme-event predictability in turbu…
We propose a physics-aware machine learning method to time-accurately predict extreme events in a turbulent flow. The method combines two radically different approaches: empirical modelling based on reservoir computing, which learns the…
Linearly stable shear flows first transition to turbulence in the form of localised patches. At low Reynolds numbers, these turbulent patches tend to suddenly decay, following a memoryless process typical of rare events. How far in advance…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
Predicting extreme events in high-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge, as such events are rare, intermittent, and arise from transient dynamical mechanisms that are difficult to infer from limited…
An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…
We present a general framework to predict precursors to extreme events in turbulent dynamical systems. The approach combines phase-space reconstruction techniques with recurrence matrices and convolutional neural networks to identify…
Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…
We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…
Machine learning algorithms have opened a breach in the fortress of the prediction of high-dimensional chaotic systems. Their ability to find hidden correlations in data can be exploited to perform model-free forecasting of spatiotemporal…
Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…
We present a study of the intermittent properties of a shell model of turbulence with unprecedented statistics, about $\sim 10^7$ eddy turn over time, achieved thanks to an implementation on a large-scale parallel GPU factory. This allows…
Extreme events generated by complex systems have been intensively studied in many fields due to their great impact on scientific research and our daily lives. However, their prediction is still a challenge in spite of the tremendous…
Reservoir computing systems, a class of recurrent neural networks, have recently been exploited for model-free, data-based prediction of the state evolution of a variety of chaotic dynamical systems. The prediction horizon demonstrated has…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…
We develop a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) based framework for model-free prediction of the occurrence of extreme events both in time ("when") and in space ("where") in nonlinear physical systems of spatial dimension two. The…
We argue that the transition to turbulence is controlled by large amplitude events that follow extreme distribution theory. The theory suggests an explanation for recent observations of the turbulent state lifetime which exhibit…