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Using Bayes' Theorem, we derive generalized equations to determine the positive and negative predictive value of screening tests undertaken sequentially. Where a is the sensitivity, b is the specificity, $\phi$ is the pre-test probability,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-28 Jacques Balayla

Modern machine learning models are highly expressive but notoriously difficult to analyze statistically. In particular, while black-box predictors can achieve strong empirical performance, they rarely provide valid hypothesis tests or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Mohamed Salem

In this paper, we develop invariance-based procedures for testing and inference in high-dimensional regression models. These procedures, also known as randomization tests, provide several important advantages. First, for the global null…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Wenxuan Guo , Panos Toulis

In this work we propose a generalized additive functional regression model for partially observed functional data. Our approach accommodates functional predictors of varying dimensions without requiring imputation of missing observations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Pavel Hernández-Amaro , Maria Durban , M. Carmen Aguilera-Morillo

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

Researchers addressing post-treatment complications in randomized trials often turn to principal stratification to define relevant assumptions and quantities of interest. One approach for estimating causal effects in this framework is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-09 Avi Feller , Fabrizia Mealli , Luke Miratrix

Multivariate functional data has received considerable attention but testing for equality of mean surfaces and its profile has limited progress. The existing literature has tested equality of either mean curves of univariate functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-07 Jin Yang , Tao Zhang , Chunling Liu , Kam Chuen Yuen , Aiyi Liu

We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

Prediction invariance of causal models under heterogeneous settings has been exploited by a number of recent methods for causal discovery, typically focussing on recovering the causal parents of a target variable of interest. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Alice Polinelli , Veronica Vinciotti , Ernst C. Wit

In this paper, we study a functional SAR model in which explanatory variables are sampling points of a continuous-time process. We propose a procedure for the maximum likelihood estimation for the spatial parameter dependence and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-14 Wilmer Pineda-Ríos , Ramón Giraldo

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Victor Dheur , Matteo Fontana , Yorick Estievenart , Naomi Desobry , Souhaib Ben Taieb

This paper deals with two-sample tests for functional time series data, which have become widely available in conjunction with the advent of modern complex observation systems. Here, particular interest is in evaluating whether two sets of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Alexander Aue , Holger Dette , Gregory Rice

In many applications, it is of interest to assess the relative contribution of features (or subsets of features) toward the goal of predicting a response -- in other words, to gauge the variable importance of features. Most recent work on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Brian D. Williamson , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah R. Simon , Marco Carone

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-19 Charles Sutton , Andrew McCallum

We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-16 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

Practitioners are interested in not only the average causal effect of the treatment on the outcome but also the underlying causal mechanism in the presence of an intermediate variable between the treatment and outcome. However, in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-04 Peng Ding , Jiannan Lu

In various fields of data science, researchers are often interested in estimating the ratio of conditional expectation functions (CEFR). Specifically in causal inference problems, it is sometimes natural to consider ratio-based treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-27 Kazuhiko Shinoda , Takahiro Hoshino

The aim of this paper is to firmly establish subjective fiducial inference as a rival to the more conventional schools of statistical inference, and to show that Fisher's intuition concerning the importance of the fiducial argument was…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-08 Russell J. Bowater

While there exists several inferential methods for analyzing functional data in factorial designs, there is a lack of statistical tests that are valid (i) in general designs, (ii) under non-restrictive assumptions on the data generating…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-28 Merle Munko , Marc Ditzhaus , Markus Pauly , Łukasz Smaga , Jin-Ting Zhang

Penalized estimation principle is fundamental to high-dimensional problems. In the literature, it has been extensively and successfully applied to various models with only structural parameters. As a contrast, in this paper, we apply this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Jianqing Fan , Runlong Tang , Xiaofeng Shi