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Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test

Machine Learning 2026-03-10 v1

Abstract

Modern machine learning models are highly expressive but notoriously difficult to analyze statistically. In particular, while black-box predictors can achieve strong empirical performance, they rarely provide valid hypothesis tests or p-values for assessing whether individual features contain information about a target variable. This article presents a practical approach to feature-level hypothesis testing that combines the Conditional Randomization Test (CRT) with TabPFN, a probabilistic foundation model for tabular data. The resulting procedure yields finite-sample valid p-values for conditional feature relevance, even in nonlinear and correlated settings, without requiring model retraining or parametric assumptions.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.06609,
  title  = {Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test},
  author = {Mohamed Salem},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.06609},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T11:07:32.141Z