Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test
Machine Learning
2026-03-10 v1
Abstract
Modern machine learning models are highly expressive but notoriously difficult to analyze statistically. In particular, while black-box predictors can achieve strong empirical performance, they rarely provide valid hypothesis tests or p-values for assessing whether individual features contain information about a target variable. This article presents a practical approach to feature-level hypothesis testing that combines the Conditional Randomization Test (CRT) with TabPFN, a probabilistic foundation model for tabular data. The resulting procedure yields finite-sample valid p-values for conditional feature relevance, even in nonlinear and correlated settings, without requiring model retraining or parametric assumptions.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.06609,
title = {Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test},
author = {Mohamed Salem},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.06609},
year = {2026}
}