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Accurate real-time wind vector estimation is essential for enhancing the safety, navigation accuracy, and energy efficiency of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Traditional approaches rely on external sensors or simplify vehicle dynamics,…
We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy…
Recently, we correlated the inferred structure of the solar chromospheric plasma topography with solar wind velocity and composition data measured at 1AU. We now offer a physical justification of these relationships and present initial…
Six time series related to atmospheric phenomena are used as inputs for experiments offorecasting with singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Existing methods for SSA parametersselection are compared throughout their forecasting accuracy…
A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the…
Accurate forecasting is important for cost-effective and efficient monitoring and control of the renewable energy based power generation. Wind based power is one of the most difficult energy to predict accurately, due to the widely varying…
Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources is essential for grid stability and price prediction. Regional power supply forecasts are usually indirect through a bottom-up approach of plant-level forecasts, incorporate…
Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…
Accurate and reliable prediction of Photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical to electricity grid stability and power dispatching capabilities. However, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is highly volatile and unstable due to different…
Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modelling, extensive…
The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…
We explore the capabilities of time-dependent (TD) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind simulations with the coupled WSA model of the solar corona and GAMERA model of the inner heliosphere. We compare TD with steady state (SS) simulations…
Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…
Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better…
Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for designing and selecting sites for offshore wind farms. This paper investigates the effectiveness of various machine learning models in predicting offshore wind power for a site near the Gulf of…
Forecasting a particular variable can depend upon temporal or spatial scale. Temporal variations that indicate variations with time, reflect the stochasticity present in the variable. Spatial variation usually are dominant in climatology…
We consider a sequential decision making process, such as renewable energy trading or electrical production scheduling, whose outcome depends on the future realization of a random factor, such as a meteorological variable. We assume that…
Variations in the solar wind density introduce variable delays into pulsar timing observations. Current pulsar timing analysis programs only implement simple models of the solar wind, which not only limit the timing accuracy, but can also…
Propagation effects are one of the main sources of noise in high-precision pulsar timing. For pulsars below an ecliptic latitude of $5^\circ$, the ionised plasma in the solar wind can introduce dispersive delays of order 100 microseconds…
Space weather indices are used commonly to drive forecasts of thermosphere density, which directly affects objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) through atmospheric drag. One of the most commonly used space weather proxies, $F_{10.7 cm}$,…