Related papers: Post-processing Probabilistic Forecasts of the Sol…
We present in this work the development of a solar data assimilation method based on an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model and magnetic surface data, our mid-term goal is to predict the solar quasi cyclic activity. Here we focus on the…
With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal…
We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear…
The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…
Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
The rate at which the solar wind extracts angular momentum from the Sun has been predicted by theoretical models for many decades, and yet we lack a conclusive measurement from in-situ observations. In this letter we present a new estimate…
This research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar…
The long-term evolution of the Sun's rotation period cannot be directly observed, and is instead inferred from trends in the measured rotation periods of other Sun-like stars. Assuming the Sun spins-down as it ages, following rotation rate…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) form a critical component of Space Weather. The complex, intertwined dynamics of SEP sources, acceleration, and transport make their forecasting very challenging. Yet, information about SEP arrival and their…
Aims: We develop a method for estimating the properties of stellar winds for low-mass main-sequence stars between masses of 0.4 and 1.1 solar masses at a range of distances from the star. Methods: We use 1D thermal pressure driven…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
The solar wind speed plays a key role in the transport of CME out of the Sun and ultimately determines the arrival time of CME-driven shocks in the heliosphere. Here, we develop an empirical model of the solar wind parameters at the inner…
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters.…
This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…
Local scaling and singularity properties of solar wind and geomagnetic time series were analysed using H\"{o}lder exponents $\alpha$. It was shown that in analysed cases due to multifractality of fluctuations $\alpha$ changes from point to…
Solar energetic particles are mainly protons and originate from the Sun during solar flares or coronal shock waves. Forecasting the Solar Energetic Protons (SEP) flux is critical for several operational sectors, such as communication and…