Related papers: Post-processing Probabilistic Forecasts of the Sol…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
The solar wind which arrives at any location in the solar system is, in principle, relatable to the outflow of solar plasma from a single source location. This source location, itself usually being part of a larger coronal hole, is…
The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in…
Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are…
Predictions of the solar wind at Earth are a central aspect of space weather prediction. The outcome of such a prediction, however, is highly sensitive to the method used for computing the magnetic field in the corona. We analyze the impact…
The share of wind power in fuel mixes worldwide has increased considerably. The main ingredient when deriving wind power predictions are wind speed data; the closer to the wind farms, the better they forecast the power supply. The current…
An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural…
The solar wind, a stream of charged particles originating from the Sun and transcending interplanetary space, poses risks to technology and astronauts. In this work, we develop a prediction model to forecast the solar wind speed at the…
Current solar wind prediction is based on the Wang & Sheeley empirical relationship between the solar wind speed observed at 1 AU and the rate of magnetic flux tube expansion (FTE) between the photosphere and the inner corona, where FTE is…
To model the structure and dynamics of the heliosphere well enough for high-quality forecasting, it is essential to accurately estimate the global solar magnetic field used as inner boundary condition in solar wind models. However, our…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…
Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of terrestrial operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a variational DA scheme with a computationally efficient solar wind model and in situ observations from…
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…
Solar wind streams, acting as background, govern the propagation of space weather drivers in the heliosphere, which induce geomagnetic storm activities. Therefore, predictions of the solar wind parameters are the core of space weather…
Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
The ambient solar wind plays a significant role in propagating interplanetary coronal mass ejections and is an important driver of space weather geomagnetic storms. A computationally efficient and widely used method to predict the ambient…
Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve…
During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development…