Related papers: A Semi-Structural Model with Household Debt for Is…

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly…

Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…

We consider a model of debt management, where a sovereign state trade some bonds to service the debt with a pool of risk-neutral competitive foreign investors. At each time, the government decides which fraction of the gross domestic…

To understand how fluctuations arise and are distributed in international trade, a question crucial for economic risk assessment and policymaking, we analyze strong adverse fluctuations-collapsed trades-defined as individual trades with…

Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…

We demonstrate using multi-layered networks, the existence of an empirical linkage between the dynamics of the financial network constructed from the market indices and the macroeconomic networks constructed from macroeconomic variables…

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral…

How does the monetary and fiscal policy mix alter households' saving incentives? To answer these questions, we build a heterogenous agents New Keynesian model where three different types of agents can save in assets with different liquidity…

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between yield curve -being a line of the interests in various maturities at a given time- and GDP growth in Turkey. The paper focuses on analyzing the yield curve in relation to its predictive…

With negative growth in real production in many countries and debt levels which become an increasing burden on developed societies, the calls for a change in economic policy and even the monetary system become louder and increasingly…

We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to…

Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the…

The European Credit Research Institute Research Report 2013 identifies Households debt "rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment" among the causes of macroeconomic instability in the European Union after 2008. In our research: i) we accessed…

Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of…

Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…

This paper analyzes the bank lending channel and the heterogeneous effects on the euro area, providing evidence that the channel is indeed working. The analysis of the transmission mechanism is based on structural impulse responses to an…

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…

This paper analyzes the 1/3 Financial Rule, a method of allocating income equally among debt repayment, savings, and living expenses. Through mathematical modeling, game theory, behavioral finance, and technological analysis, we examine the…

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…

Despite decades of climate policy and rapid improvements in energy efficiency, global CO2 emissions continue to rise, suggesting the presence of structural drivers that offset efficiency gains. Here we identify financial leverage as a key…