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In many experimental and observational studies, the outcome of interest is often difficult or expensive to observe, reducing effective sample sizes for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) even when identifiable. We study how…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Inverse modeling for computing a high-dimensional spatially-varying property field from indirect sparse and noisy observations is a challenging problem. This is due to the complex physical system of interest often expressed in the form of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-02-22 Govinda Anantha Padmanabha , Nicholas Zabaras

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Online user-generated content platforms allocate billions of dollars of promotional traffic through algorithms in two-sided marketplaces. To evaluate updates to these algorithms, platforms frequently rely on creator-side randomized…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Ruohan Zhan , Shichao Han , Yuchen Hu , Zhenling Jiang

Recent work on policy learning from observational data has highlighted the importance of efficient policy evaluation and has proposed reductions to weighted (cost-sensitive) classification. But, efficient policy evaluation need not yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-13 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus

Carefully designed activation functions can improve the performance of neural networks in many machine learning tasks. However, it is difficult for humans to construct optimal activation functions, and current activation function search…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Garrett Bingham , Risto Miikkulainen

In networked dynamical systems, inferring governing parameters is crucial for predicting nodal dynamics, such as gene expression levels, species abundance, or population density. While many parameter estimation techniques rely on…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-03-25 Yanna Ding , Malik Magdon-Ismail , Jianxi Gao

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Pietro Carlotti , Layla Parast

Individualized treatment selection with continuous actions requires accurate causal response estimation in decision-relevant regions, rather than uniformly over the entire action space. Estimating a global causal response surface and then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Tomàs Garriga , Alejandro Almodóvar , Axel Brando , Gerard Sanz , Eduard Serrahima de Cambra , Juan Parras

We develop a new approach for identifying and estimating average causal effects in panel data under a linear factor model with unmeasured confounders. Compared to other methods tackling factor models such as synthetic controls and matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

Risk modeling with EHR data is challenging due to a lack of direct observations on the disease outcome, and the high dimensionality of the candidate predictors. In this paper, we develop a surrogate assisted semi-supervised-learning (SAS)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-05 Jue Hou , Zijian Guo , Tianxi Cai

Given the unconfoundedness assumption, we propose new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. In the first stage, the nuisance functions necessary for identifying CATE are…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-26 Qingliang Fan , Yu-Chin Hsu , Robert P. Lieli , Yichong Zhang

In most machine learning applications, classification accuracy is not the primary metric of interest. Binary classifiers which face class imbalance are often evaluated by the $F_\beta$ score, area under the precision-recall curve, Precision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-02 Alan Mackey , Xiyang Luo , Elad Eban

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

In this paper, we study a novel approach for the estimation of quantiles when facing potential right censoring of the responses. Contrary to the existing literature on the subject, the adopted strategy of this paper is to tackle censoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Mickaël De Backer , Anouar El Ghouch , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Multitask learning is widely used in practice to train a low-resource target task by augmenting it with multiple related source tasks. Yet, naively combining all the source tasks with a target task does not always improve the prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Dongyue Li , Huy L. Nguyen , Hongyang R. Zhang

Accurate and efficient surrogate models for aerodynamic surface pressure fields are essential for accelerating aircraft design and analysis, yet deterministic regressors trained with pointwise losses often smooth sharp nonlinear features.…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-14 Víctor Francés-Belda , Carlos Sanmiguel Vila , Rodrigo Castellanos

Adaptive experimental designs have gained increasing attention across a range of domains. In this paper, we propose a new methodological framework, surrogate-leveraged online adaptive causal inference (SLOACI), which integrates predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Yingying Fan , Zihan Wang , Waverly Wei

We propose a general approach for supervised learning with structured output spaces, such as combinatorial and polyhedral sets, that is based on minimizing estimated conditional risk functions. Given a loss function defined over pairs of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Chong Yang Goh , Patrick Jaillet